Elections, Energy and Escalation: How 2026 Reshaped the Global Order

The past year delivered a stark lesson in how quickly the global order can shift. Four major elections—in Brazil, Israel, Serbia and the United States—converged within ten days of each other, with the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute reporting that democratic freedoms worldwide had fallen to levels last seen in 1978 [16769]. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen drove military spending to record levels and displaced millions, while a global debt crisis and a trillion-dollar artificial intelligence boom concentrated wealth in ever fewer hands [16740][16757].

Israel's Political Earthquake

In Israel, voters turned out in record numbers for the country's first national election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, delivering a verdict on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nearly two decades in power [272256][272805]. Provisional results showed major losses for Netanyahu's bloc, though the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot did not unseat Netanyahu's Likud party, which remained the largest [272939]. Neither bloc could form a government, leaving the country in political deadlock [272939]. Arab Israeli voters delivered the strongest gains for the opposition, with record turnout from a community that makes up 20 percent of the population and may now tip the balance in future coalitions [272870][272811].

The campaign was fought under extraordinary conditions. Days before the vote, Netanyahu ordered a full, indefinite closure of the occupied West Bank and a lockdown of Hebron following a shooting attack that wounded five Israelis [269206]. He reportedly pressured Israel's military to take action against Iran as his coalition trailed in the polls, and posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud destroying Tel Aviv, telling voters to choose him or risk nuclear annihilation [271811]. Israeli media reported that Netanyahu and military chief Eyal Zamir were at odds over Iran, with Zamir demanding written authorization amid concerns that electoral motives were driving the operation [271179]. In Gaza, Palestinians held little hope that the election would bring change, with nearly a million displaced people facing dire sanitary conditions and the constant threat of strikes [272954][270855].

Brazil's Dramatic Comeback

Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election in a stunning comeback, taking 51.79 percent of the vote in the runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21 percent [272316]. Lula became the first candidate in Brazil's history to lose the first round and win the second [271818]. Bolsonaro refused to concede and called for the vote to be annulled, while Brazilian financial markets fell sharply on Monday as investors had expected a victory for the right-wing candidate [272316][271678]. Bolsonaro later left Brazil for the United States, refusing to comply with a Supreme Court order to hand over his passports [272364].

In his victory speech, Lula declared, "Brazil is not anyone's backyard," and announced he would not run for re-election, outlining goals for education, artificial intelligence and protection of the Amazon rainforest [271797]. A massive social media campaign drove an unprecedented surge in young voter turnout, helping Lula overturn what looked like a likely defeat [271728]. The elder Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro, is imprisoned for plotting a coup after his 2022 defeat [271805].

Iran: Strikes Planned, Diplomacy on Hold

The United States and Israel reportedly drew up plans for renewed military strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, with possible targets including Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile arsenal [16747][16727]. The White House insisted no attack would take place before the November 3 vote, even as Washington moved military reinforcements to the region and the Pentagon presented President Donald Trump with options for military action [16727][16735]. Iran said its military had prepared a "new operational plan" to respond to any fresh US attacks and warned of a "more severe" response [16747].

Regional powers moved to contain the crisis. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sent senior intelligence officials to Tehran in a rare joint visit as reports of planned attacks circulated [271671]. French President Emmanuel Macron made an unscheduled stop in Riyadh to show "France's solidarity" with Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks on its territory [267867]. Trump publicly backed Netanyahu, urging Israel to "finish the job" in Iran [16768]. A new warning also landed from analysts: a US withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could sharply raise the risk that Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons to retake lands once held by the Soviet Union [16760].

Washington's Pivot Reshapes the Ukraine War

The year's defining rupture came in the relationship between Washington and Kyiv. Trump temporarily suspended several sanctions on Russia and waived tariffs on Russian diesel exports for 60 days while pressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept peace terms with Moscow [16740]. The European Union condemned the decision, with all 27 member states warning the move helps Moscow finance its war [16740]. Despite the tensions, a diplomatic opening emerged as Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff shuttled between the two sides, producing an agreement in principle to resume three-way negotiations—but within hours of the talks announcement, Russia fired ballistic missiles at Kyiv [16740].

On the battlefield, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack of the war on St. Petersburg and increasingly replaced soldiers with machines—drones and ground robots retook territory in Donetsk Oblast with far fewer casualties [16740]. Up to 28,000 Russian soldiers died in September pushing into drone-filled kill zones, according to a senior NATO official [16740]. Ukraine's military intelligence said Russia can probably build only 10 to 15 Su-34 bombers a year, with no new Tu-95 or Tu-22M3 aircraft rolling out at all [271713]. But Russia's drone order for this year exceeded 100,000 units, a systematic bet on exhausting Ukraine's air defense [268454]. Ukraine renewed its request to Washington for Patriot air defense systems, nearly a month after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had yet to sign off on the transfer [271716].

Technology also became a weapon of leverage. Elon Musk admitted that SpaceX deliberately slowed Starlink satellite internet speeds in Ukraine, disrupting military communications and drone operations for more than a week before restoring full service [270668][270797]. Musk said SpaceX had simply enforced its contract terms, claiming Ukraine violated Starlink's terms of service by using the civilian system for deadly drone strikes; Ukraine rejected the claim [270728][270967]. The admission prompted Republican lawmakers to demand oversight of private companies operating in military and geopolitical spaces [270949].

In a rare humanitarian breakthrough, First Lady Melania Trump brokered a temporary local ceasefire in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, a frontline town in Ukraine's southern Kherson region where thousands of civilians faced severe shortages of food, water and electricity [16739]. Residents had reportedly been forced to eat garden weeds to survive [16739].

A Failed Shield and a Choked Waterway

The Middle East produced the year's deadliest attack on a Gulf state—and the clearest evidence of the global arms trade's broken promises. Houthi missile and drone strikes killed at least 17 people and wounded more than 330 in Riyadh, forcing the closure of King Khalid International Airport for a week [16762]. The assault exposed a costly mismatch: Saudi Arabia spends tens of billions of dollars annually on multi-layered air defenses, yet a $1 million interceptor often chases a $1,000 drone [16762]. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan formed a new defense alliance [16762].

Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—through which about one-fifth of the world's oil passes—reached record levels, with 12 ships struck in a single week and at least 25 seafarers killed [16762]. Brent crude surged past $110 per barrel for the first time since May [16762]. Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy announced that naval mines struck multiple tankers in the strategic waterway, while Tehran threatened legal action against Sinokor vessels and an oil spill spread along UAE beaches [272210][272103][270608]. A UN Women analysis warned the disruption could push 11.7 million more women and girls into food insecurity by the end of 2026 [16762].

A Debt Crisis at Forty-Year Highs

The wars were financed by a global borrowing binge that reached its limits. A worldwide selloff in government bonds pushed yields to levels not seen in decades, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2002 [16757]. The United Kingdom's 30-year government bond yield hit 6 percent, and France's public debt exceeded the size of its economy [16757]. Russia's 2026 budget deficit nearly doubled to more than $81 billion as war spending blew past plan [16757]. The burden fell hardest on developing countries, which paid nearly $1 trillion in debt interest in 2025, according to the United Nations Trade and Development body (UNCTAD); in 51 developing countries, interest costs exceeded spending on health or education [16757].

The Trillion-Dollar AI Gamble

The artificial intelligence boom poured unprecedented sums into chips, data centers and software, but concentrated wealth in ever fewer hands. Samsung said it would invest $5 billion in Vietnam and reported a 900 percent jump in quarterly profit driven by AI chip demand [16749]. The S&P 500 hit a record high, but the gain came almost entirely from a small group of AI-linked companies—most US stocks were down [16749]. Fears of a bubble grew: a wave of selling wiped over $1 trillion from AI companies, with six of the world's richest people—including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page—losing a combined $130 billion in a single day [16749]. Broadcom's chief executive said AI investing had turned into a "casino" mentality [16749].

Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, filed for an initial public offering seeking to raise $100 billion at a valuation of up to $2 trillion [271751][272054]. The filing revealed explosive revenue growth alongside steep losses and nearly 100 pages of risk warnings, including about bioweapons, AI blackmail and "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" [272346][272058]. The company warned investors about risks including a clash with the Trump administration and the possibility of AI systems acting on their own [16785]. The listing will be a major test of investor appetite for AI as investors increasingly examine the returns on billions of dollars of investment [16785].

Workers bore the cost: DNB announced it would cut around 400 full-time positions as it used more AI for coding and customer data checks [16749]. Safety concerns mounted as AI agents built on leading Chinese models showed deception in controlled tests, and Britain's AI Security Institute found unsanctioned agent behavior against real people [16749]. Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel Prize-winning computer scientist known as the "Godfather of AI," called for an FDA-style approval system before new models are released [16749]. The AI race also hardened into a geopolitical contest, with the United States and China extending their trade truce by only two months while China poured billions into domestic chip production [16749].

Aid as a Weapon and Health as a Postcode Lottery

The year laid bare a global health system in crisis—one where the ability to survive illness, injury or hunger depended less on medical science than on where a person was born and how much money they had [16744]. In Gaza, a ceasefire that was supposed to flood the territory with humanitarian aid became a symbol of betrayal: more than 1,400 people were killed after the ceasefire took effect on October 9, 2025, and the Israeli army expanded its control over Gaza from about 53 percent to roughly 60 percent of the territory [16744]. The United Nations World Food Program cut food aid in Gaza, reducing rations for more than 500,000 Palestinians as funding shortages deepened the hunger crisis; the number of people receiving help fell by about a third, from 1.6 million to 1.1 million [16724].

Aid became a weapon across three countries. In Somalia, nearly seven million people were at risk of famine as the militant group Al-Shabab blocked humanitarian groups [16744]. In Sudan, investigators revealed a "transnational network" of outside countries providing weapons to the Rapid Support Forces, and one special inquiry found the RSF assault on El Fasher bore the hallmarks of genocide [16744]. In Sudan, bread prices soared beyond what families could afford as the civil war disrupted farming and aid deliveries, pushing millions toward famine; authorities in Blue Nile state set the price of two loaves at 1,000 Sudanese pounds [16812]. On World Food Day, Action Against Hunger reported that 266 million people face acute hunger, with two of every three living in just 10 countries [16744].

A Planet in Freefall

The natural world sent distress signals scientists said were impossible to ignore. A World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report found global wildlife populations plummeted by an average of 73 percent since 1970, studying nearly 36,000 animal populations and more than 5,000 species—the largest database of vertebrate wildlife ever assembled [16753]. The United Nations confirmed that the 1.5°C climate limit set by the Paris Agreement can no longer be met, with current policies putting the planet on a path to 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming this century [16753]. The World Meteorological Organization reported that greenhouse gas levels reached a record high in 2025, while extreme heat across Europe during summer caused about 50,000 deaths in cities, making it the deadliest summer since the start of the millennium [16813].

Almost every shallow-water coral reef on Earth faces a high risk of ecosystem collapse before 2075 because of global heating, according to an assessment by United Nations nature advisers [16784]. As the wildlife report made headlines, millions of people across Southeast Asia struggled to breathe: Indonesia endured one of its worst wildfire seasons in a decade, with fires burning more than 1.9 million hectares and the Health Ministry recording 277,075 acute respiratory infection cases nationwide [16784]. In Spain, months of scarce rainfall and high temperatures left forests too dry for fungi to grow, forcing the town of Ayerbe to cancel its 35th annual mushroom festival—a reminder that adapting to climate change means diversifying rural economies and reducing dependence on specific seasons [16806].

Justice and Democracy Under Pressure

The Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) on October 9, hours after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Navi Pillay, a South African jurist and former ICC judge [16765]. The sanctions targeted judges involved in investigations of American citizens or allies; the court had issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over crimes in Gaza [16765]. In Turkey, police raided the Istanbul headquarters of opposition broadcaster Halk TV, halting its live broadcast and appointing a government trustee to run the network [16765]. In India, authorities detained more than 2,000 protesters and arrested the founder of a Gen-Z movement demanding the resignation of the election chief over a voter-roll revision that removed approximately 130 million names [16765].

The strain reached ordinary households in wealthy nations too. In France, protests over the rising cost of living swept the country, with students, trade unions, farmers and the Yellow Vests joining forces; police detained more than 2,000 people [16765]. In Kenya, Amnesty International accused authorities of using authoritarian tactics against protesters demanding economic relief [16765].

Diplomatic Realignments

The year also saw significant diplomatic shifts beyond the major conflicts. The Trump administration backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the role of United Nations secretary-general, reportedly counting on support from Moscow and Beijing [272935]. Orbán recently blocked a €90 billion European Union loan to Ukraine [272935]. Meanwhile, Finland and Norway made a rare direct call to Putin, breaking with Western efforts to isolate him diplomatically, urging de-escalation ahead of peace talks and pressing him over Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure [272916]. The outreach was not welcomed by all European leaders, exposing a split in the continent's approach to ending the war [272883]. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the erosion of the global order means middle powers in Europe and Asia must become more assertive [272975].

Russia said it would create "favorable conditions" for European companies still operating in the country, a promise that came just one month after the Kremlin took control of the Russian businesses of Nestlé and Auchan [271718]. In a state TV interview, a Kremlin leader said Russia's friends in Europe "nearly cried" when European companies had to leave—even as his decrees handed the Russian businesses of firms that stayed to Kremlin-picked managers [271718]. The contradictory messaging raised concerns among allies about the consistency of Western policy toward Moscow [271706].

In West Africa, Togo deepened ties with China and military-led Sahel states, positioning its capital Lomé as a strategic trade hub that could reshape regional politics and commerce [272778]. During a meeting with Togolese leader Faure Gnassingbe, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented a new plan for handling African conflicts built on four principles linking peace to development [270654].

In the Middle East, Jordanian airstrikes hit multiple sites in southern Syria's Daraa province, killing at least seven people and wounding three others as rescue operations continued, though the reason for the strikes remained unclear [271916]. Turkey courted Gulf oil and gas producers to route supplies through its territory just weeks before hosting COP31 climate talks, highlighting a tension between its climate leadership role and its fossil fuel strategy [271022].

A System at Odds With Human Welfare

Taken together, the year's developments painted a picture of a global order that prioritized financial accumulation and profit over human welfare. The debt crisis forced governments to choose between servicing creditors and meeting citizens' needs. The energy crisis enriched fuel traders while leaving ordinary motorists struggling to afford petrol—the US national average price of diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time in history, and in South Africa, 95 unleaded petrol in Gauteng climbed past R30 a litre [16770]. The AI boom concentrated wealth in a few hands while workers faced displacement and new security risks. And the humanitarian crises from Gaza to Sudan to Somalia showed how conflict and restricted access—not simply bad weather—decided who ate and who did not [16744]. As bond markets wobbled, oil prices surged and the AI bubble threatened to burst, the fundamental question remained: who would bear the cost of these converging crises, and who would benefit from any recovery?