Spy Chiefs Warn Russia Could Hit NATO Within Months as Putin's Sham Win Fuels War Fears
Western intelligence officials say Moscow may attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory sooner than expected, with French intelligence pointing to a major attack as early as autumn 2027.
European spy chiefs are warning that Russia could attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory within months, far sooner than previously expected, as Vladimir Putin's widely dismissed election victory deepens fears that Moscow will escalate beyond Ukraine [246180][245744][246107].
A Czech intelligence chief said Russia may try to enter NATO territory within months, while his Baltic counterparts urged calm and cautioned against panic and overreaction [246180]. French intelligence now says a major Russian attack could come as early as autumn 2027, earlier than previously expected [245744].
The warnings follow a series of drone attacks, hybrid threats and unusual intelligence meetings across Europe [245966]. Hybrid warfare combines military and non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage [244783].
French President Emmanuel Macron said Russian hybrid attacks on Europe are worsening and ordered his government to prepare a "protection plan" for critical infrastructure across the country [244972][244783]. The plan will focus on protecting critical infrastructure and the most sensitive sites in France's defense industrial and technological sectors against drone attacks and cyberattacks [244783].
Macron said the decision was made during a National Defense and Security Council meeting on Wednesday, after which Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau gathered regional prefects on Thursday to raise the level of readiness and surveillance [244783].
Since the summer, Russia has carried out multiple attacks and incidents, according to Macron. These include a drone attack on a train connecting Kyiv to Warsaw, an attempted attack in Leipzig, a rocket launch near a Danish frigate, and several incursions into European airspace [244783].
Macron also announced that France will host a Group of Seven (G7) meeting on energy in the coming weeks, as fuel prices rise [244632].
Putin is set to win Russia's election, a vote widely seen as a sham with no real opposition allowed [246107]. Western officials now fear he will escalate not just the war in Ukraine, but also attacks on NATO, a military alliance of 32 nations including the United States and most of Europe, where an attack on any member is treated as an attack on all [246107].
Kjell Engelbrekt, an expert at the Swedish Defence University, said the situation is serious. "You are then close to a very serious situation," he said [245966].
The tensions have also exposed divisions among European leaders. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said some Western politicians are pushing for a conflict between NATO and Russia, arguing their strategy to defeat Moscow in the Ukraine war has failed [246095]. Fico has long kept warm relations with Russia and refuses to send military aid to Ukraine [246095].
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Western countries are preparing for war with Russia and spreading a "myth" about a Russian threat to justify it. He said the United States is ready to keep talking even when the two sides hold "diametrically opposed" positions, suggesting Moscow sees a split between Washington and Europe on how to handle Russia [243380].
At the same time, some European leaders, such as those in France and Poland, have warned of the danger of the war spreading [246095]. Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany warned that the war in Ukraine has entered its most decisive period and promised to keep German military aid flowing to Kyiv, saying "We will not abandon Ukraine" and that a Russian victory would put all of Europe at risk [240880].
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the creation of a new security council that would include European Union member states alongside partners such as Britain, Canada, Norway and Ukraine [242707]. Finland has joined France's nuclear deterrence initiative, linking it to a French-led effort centered on nuclear deterrence [240795].
Despite the growing danger, Macron defended continued French and European support for Ukraine, saying it is necessary for France's security and for achieving a "just and lasting" peace. France and the United Kingdom are coordinating a "coalition of volunteers," whose participating countries plan to hold exercises on European territory in the coming weeks [244783].