Can Democrats Finally Flip Texas? The Perfect Storm Behind Terico's Historic Bid

Texas was once a swing state, but it has been reliably red for decades. A Democrat has not won statewide office in the Lone Star State since 1994, a gubernatorial race since 1990, or a US Senate race since 1988. In recent cycles, however, Democrats have dared to dream of flipping Texas blue. Beto O'Rourke came close to unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. In 2024, Kamala Harris even held a presidential campaign rally in Texas, but was ultimately resoundingly defeated there by Donald Trump.

Now, ahead of the 2026 midterms, Democrats are increasingly confident they can finally flip Texas with their Senate candidate, James Talarico. There are reasons to believe this latest vision of a blue Texas is not just another mirage. Polling averages show Talarico with a slight advantage over Republican candidate Ken Paxton. This year may be the Democrats' best shot at flipping Texas.

The Polls

Most aggregators, including the Silver Bulletin, Real Clear Politics, and Fifty Plus One, place Democratic candidate James Talarico in the mid to upper 40 percent range, roughly two to three points ahead of his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton. Against this backdrop, in August, both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Texas Senate race from lean Republican to tossup.

What is driving this positive momentum for Democrats? It is a perfect storm of factors.

Candidate Quality

The first factor is candidate quality. The 37-year-old Democratic candidate James Talarico has been a Texas state representative since 2018. As a Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico has foregrounded his faith in his campaign and politics, seeking to reclaim Christianity from the conservative right.

His Republican opponent is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who carries significant baggage. In 2023, he was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas State House, although he was later acquitted by the state senate. He was embroiled in a decade-long legal saga and indicted on securities fraud charges, but these were dismissed in 2024 after he struck a deal with prosecutors. Just last year, his wife publicly filed for divorce on biblical grounds, accusing him of adultery.

Nevertheless, Paxton's hardline Trump-backed primary campaign successfully secured the Republican nomination and ousted four-term incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. Talarico also came through a relatively bitter primary. He defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination, but she has, despite endorsing him, continued to be critical of him and his candidacy, saying she is unlikely to campaign for him.

Talarico is seeking to win over centrist independents and disaffected Republican voters who would have voted for Cornyn but worry that Paxton is too extreme. As part of this effort, Talarico has sought to distance himself from the national Democratic brand, including by criticizing former President Joe Biden's border policy while attacking Paxton for his past controversies and legal troubles under the theme, the people versus Ken Paxton.

Conversely, Paxton seems to be focusing less on the middle ground and is instead trying to mobilize the conservative base. This has notably included questioning Talarico's masculinity by highlighting past comments that might be described as woke, accusing him of being vegan, and implying that he has low testosterone levels. Paxton's campaign strategy is not universally popular in Republican circles. He has had to fend off criticism from outgoing Republican Senator Cornyn, who accused Paxton of being a lazy campaigner who does not raise money.

Money and Momentum

The momentum and the money are also behind Talarico, who has rapidly become a rising star of the Democratic party, while Paxton's pockets remain relatively shallow. As of their last disclosures, Talarico has raised more than 68 million dollars compared to Paxton's nine million. Paxton cannot even rely on his predecessor's fundraising prowess. John Cornyn says he will use his fundraising strength to help Republican colleagues in other states instead.

Big spending Republican groups from outside Texas, like the Senate Leadership Fund, have also been reluctant to jump in and support Paxton, having supported Cornyn in the primary and arguing that Trump and the MAGA sphere should shoulder the responsibility of financing Paxton's campaign. Talarico's cash advantage has allowed him to dominate the airwaves with ad spending.

Trump's Unpopularity and the Hispanic Vote

Talarico's momentum is not entirely due to his own strengths or Paxton's weaknesses. President Trump is deeply unpopular, something that is weighing down Republicans heading into the midterms. Trump's current net approval is hovering at an all-time low around negative 20.

What puts Paxton most at risk in Texas, where Hispanic people make up something like 30 percent of eligible voters, is that the inroads Trump made with Hispanic voters in 2024 are being reversed. Polling and analysis from the New York Times in June shows just how dramatically Hispanic Texans have swung back away from Republicans and toward Democrats since 2024. Without getting too deep into why this is, it is fair to say that widespread dissatisfaction with Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living, as well as his aggressive immigration crackdown, have played a big role in hurting Trump's and the Republicans' standing in Hispanic communities.

The New York Times poll from June, which showed Talarico leading among Hispanic voters by 61 to 29 percent, also showed him beating Paxton 58 to 31 percent among independents, another key voting group.

The Caveats

While Talarico is polling better than Beto O'Rourke did in 2018, it is still a tall order to overturn 30 years of Republican dominance in Texas. Polling is one thing, but voters actually need to turn out to support Talarico if he is to win. As such, many Democrats will struggle to believe that a blue Texas is a real possibility until Talarico walks into the Senate chamber to be sworn in.

Furthermore, while Talarico has an undeniable cash advantage over Paxton, Paxton's financial misfortunes could change. The pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC is sitting on around 400 million dollars, which could be used to help bankroll candidates like Paxton. Republicans are reportedly getting increasingly agitated at MAGA Inc.'s lack of haste in doling out this money.

Another stream of money could come from billionaire Elon Musk, who has rekindled his friendship with Donald Trump and, according to Wired, could be prepared to spend up to 200 million dollars to boost Republicans in key states such as Texas.

Conclusion

The answer to the question, can Democrats flip Texas, is yes. But whether they will can only really be answered with a wait and see. Democrats need to defend all of their current Senate seats and gain at least four more if they are going to take control of the Senate. That Texas is in play significantly opens up their path to a majority and forces Republicans to defend on more fronts.