Ukraine's Air War Is Bleeding Russia Dry — But Kyiv Still Can't Get the Patriots It Needs

Ukraine's military intelligence says Russia can probably build only 10 to 15 Su-34 bombers a year, with no new Tu-95 or Tu-22M3 aircraft rolling out at all [4]. The same assessment lists Russian jets destroyed or critically damaged this year, including two Tu-95MS bombers hit at Engels air base [4]. On the Ukrainian side, interceptor crews have destroyed thousands of Russian aerial targets, according to a battalion commander, whose unit's work has stopped Russian forces from tracking Ukrainian troop movements and striking advancing soldiers [5].

But the fight is far from one-sided. Russia's drone order for this year exceeds 100,000 units, a systematic bet on exhausting Ukraine's air defense, and military intelligence says Moscow is replacing missiles about as fast as it fires them [6]. Jet-powered Shahed drones remain a serious challenge for Ukraine's air defenders, even as pilots use 20-mm cannon rounds to intercept the faster targets [5][3]. Denmark has rushed 50,000 cannon rounds to Ukraine to help its F-16s hunt Russia's advanced jet drones [3].

On the diplomatic front, Ukraine has renewed its request to Washington for Patriot air defense systems, nearly a month after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has yet to sign off on the transfer [7]. The push followed a meeting between Ukraine's defense minister, foreign minister and army chief focused on supplies of air defense interceptors [7].

The air war is also reshaping Ukraine's military. Its Air Force is rebuilding on NATO's model by 2035 and already knows which fighter it wants next, even as its current F-16s face thousands of Russian targets a month — many of them worn jets bought secondhand [1]. While Ukraine could buy newly built F-16 Block 70/72 jets from Lockheed Martin, those advanced aircraft are not what Ukrainian pilots need most [2].