Ukraine’s Air Defense Is Running on Empty as Russia’s Faster Drones and Missiles Close In

Ukraine is racing to protect its energy grid and cities from an intensifying Russian air war, but its winter resilience plans are less than half complete, and European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned on Wednesday that Kyiv is critically short of the very missiles needed to stop incoming strikes [232822][232210]. Kallas said Ukraine is “lacking interceptors” and urged EU member states to hand over air defense missiles that are set to expire, arguing that unused weapons are typically destroyed and could instead save lives [232210]. The shortage leaves critical infrastructure and civilian areas increasingly vulnerable as Russia intensifies its aerial bombardment [232210].

The threat has evolved. Russia has built faster jet-powered drones that do not outsmart Ukraine’s advanced missile systems but instead threaten the cheaper, simpler layer of defense that makes those systems affordable to use [232813]. A single fast drone can force Ukraine to spend tens of thousands of dollars to stop it, wearing down both budgets and patience [232813]. At the same time, Kyiv faces a narrow window to stop Russia’s most dangerous missile, the Iskander, a short-range ballistic weapon that can hit a target within minutes of launch [230692]. Ukraine has five known countermeasures, but four of them react too slowly [230692]. The only option that arrives before the strike begins is hunting the launcher itself, which spends roughly twenty minutes above ground in a forest before firing [230692]. That requires constant surveillance with drones, satellites, and human intelligence [230692].

Ukrainian officials have prioritized defending critical infrastructure, yet the gap between what is needed and what is ready remains wide [232822]. A key bottleneck is the railway network, vital for moving troops, supplies, and civilians; new locomotives have been ordered, but they will not arrive before 2027 [232822]. The coming months will test the country’s ability to keep essential services running, and without fully completed defenses, the risk of prolonged blackouts and heating failures looms large [232822].

In a rare moment of wartime cooperation, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has presented a five-point plan to current leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy aimed at helping the capital survive what officials describe as a “permanent air raid alert” [232825]. The plan focuses on practical measures to maintain basic city functions and protect civilians during prolonged alerts [232825]. No official response from Zelenskyy’s office has been reported yet [232825].

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries have cut jet fuel production so sharply that Moscow is now buying fuel from abroad to keep its warplanes flying, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the GUR [231985]. The GUR said Russia has already purchased at least 70,000 tonnes of aviation fuel from South Korea and Egypt, delivered on three “shadow fleet” tankers [231985]. Russia has also banned exports of its own aviation fuel and is now fueling some military transport planes with fuel that goes against manufacturer recommendations [231985]. Ukraine has relied largely on homemade cruise missiles and drones for these long-range strikes, and President Zelenskyy said this month that more deep strikes are coming [231985]. He added that in the past week alone, Russia launched nearly 2,000 attack drones, more than 1,600 glide bombs, and 31 missiles, including North Korean ballistic missiles [231985].