Putin’s Nuclear Threats May Signal Coming Attack on NATO

Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased threats to target European democracies with nuclear weapons, and these threats may be a warning sign of a planned Russian military attack on a NATO country [1]. The escalation comes as Germany's foreign intelligence chief warns that Russia is already fighting a "shadow war" against Europe, with the risk of direct conflict growing [3].

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Russia will threaten the rest of Europe if it is not stopped in Ukraine. Speaking at a ceremony where NATO received the Westphalian Peace Prize, Merz praised NATO's role in keeping Europe safe and said the alliance must stay strong against Russian aggression [5]. In related news, the German military announced it will create its first drone regiment as part of efforts to modernize its armed forces [5].

France has also responded to the growing threat. French President Emmanuel Macron made an unexpected appearance at a missile test launch from a nuclear submarine, calling it "a remarkable demonstration of credibility and an important milestone" [2]. France's military test-fired a new M51.3 ballistic missile on Tuesday that can carry nuclear weapons, launching it over the Atlantic Ocean. Macron said the test proves France's nuclear deterrent is credible [12].

The tensions extend beyond Europe. Putin made his first visit to a northern territory also claimed by Japan as Russian naval activity increases near Japan's southernmost islands. Tokyo has long disputed ownership of the northern territories, which Moscow calls the Southern Kuril Islands [4].

On the battlefield, Russia appears to be launching its winter attack campaign earlier than usual this year. Ukraine is still building up its defenses against the ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones Russia is using in these strikes. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these attacks are growing larger with more weapons launched at once, and the shift may be a response to Ukraine's recent gains [5].

Putin said Moscow could seize the remaining parts of Ukraine's Donetsk region held by Kyiv faster than Ukraine and Europe expect. He also said Moscow was ready to resume talks after elections and remained open to a negotiated settlement [9].

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he will speak with Putin "very soon" [7]. The call comes as the United States grows frustrated with Moscow over Russia not sharing enough details about a reported second illness in the country. The World Health Organization (WHO) is also seeking information about the case [7]. Trump also said he will discuss a plague incident in Siberia during the call, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is monitoring the situation [10].