El Niño Could Be Strongest in 40 Years—UN Warns of Global Crop Chaos and Trillions in Losses
The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the current El Niño weather event is on track to become the strongest since records began four decades ago, threatening global agriculture, supply chains, and economies already battered by climate change [234699][234064]. The phenomenon—marked by unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters—has not yet peaked, meaning the worst impacts on food production and markets are still to come [234385].
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s climate agency, said Thursday that the naturally occurring event is set to become “very strong” in the coming months and is near certain to last until February [234699]. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is now in the “danger zone of extreme weather,” as the event disrupts rainfall patterns, triggers droughts, and fuels floods across continents [234699].
Scientists say this El Niño is being “super-charged” by the climate crisis, with rising global temperatures amplifying its intensity beyond historical levels [233993]. A new study of coral skeletons—which preserve 1,000 years of ocean temperature data—shows that recent El Niño events are significantly stronger than any in the past millennium, providing the first solid evidence that human-driven climate change is making these weather patterns more extreme [233261].
The economic fallout is already visible. France’s summer heatwaves, linked to the broader climate crisis, have sharply cut harvests, with officials expecting agricultural output to fall by 8% this year—shaving 0.1 percentage points off the country’s economic growth in 2026 [234702]. The UN warns that the ongoing event will likely cause widescale disruption to agricultural markets, with farmers across multiple continents facing failed harvests and supply shortages [234385].
The ripple effects extend far beyond farms. In shipping, disrupted trade winds and altered ocean currents are causing delays and rerouting vessels, adding significant time and fuel costs to global freight [230937]. The mining sector is also on the front line, with heavy rains and flooding disrupting copper production in key regions like Chile and Peru, driving up prices for the critical industrial metal [230937]. Even aquaculture is suffering, as warmer ocean waters alter fish migration patterns and drive up costs for fish feed [230937].
Global sea surface temperatures have already reached their highest on record, averaging 21.1°C (70°F) in late March, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 [229843]. Scientists say the ocean is absorbing most of the heat from climate change, and warmer waters provide more energy for storms, making hurricanes and typhoons stronger [229843].
Experts say the economic damage from extreme weather—crop failures, infrastructure strain, and energy price spikes—could run into trillions of dollars [234694]. The UN is urging governments and traders to prepare for increased volatility in crop yields and market stability, stressing that no region is immune, as the ripple effects of damaged harvests in one area can quickly raise food costs worldwide [234385].