Hyper El Niño Could Hit 4C and Spark Global Chaos, Scientists Warn
A rapidly forming Pacific warming event is forecast to reach double the strength of a "super" El Niño, with scientists warning of weather disasters through 2027.
The world is entering an El Niño period unlike any in recent memory, and scientists say it could bring a string of weather disasters across the globe.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that warms the central and eastern Pacific Ocean every few years, shifting rainfall, storms and drought around the planet. It alternates with a cool phase known as La Niña [241914].
This year, the heating is far stronger than normal. Scientists define a "super" El Niño as one that reaches 2C of warming above average. This one is forecast to hit 4C [241548].
Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London (UCL), calls it a "hyper" El Niño. He warns it could mark one of the biggest weather upheavals in a thousand years [241548].
The climate crisis is making the situation worse. McGuire says it will cause a string of weather disasters across the globe for the rest of this year and into 2027, and that the United Kingdom (UK) will not escape [241548].
The last major El Niño, in 2015–2016, helped push global heat to record levels and caused droughts, floods and coral bleaching in many regions. This year's event formed quickly and is expected to grow stronger in the coming months. Scientists say it may combine with long-term global warming, making heat and extreme weather more likely in some areas [241914].
The full effects are still uncertain. What happens in the next few months will show how this El Niño compares with past events [241914].
Researchers are also turning to an unlikely source to understand whether today's intense El Niño events are truly unusual: coral reefs. Coral skeletons preserve a chemical record of ocean conditions, offering a window into past El Niño activity. Records already show that El Niño events have been frequent and often extreme in recent decades, raising the question of whether climate change is driving the pattern [241503].
The warnings come as the UK continues to count the cost of extreme heat. According to a report co-authored by the Met Office, this summer's heat led to 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales, with nature, farming and water supplies all under severe strain [241565].
McGuire says the world needs leaders who make things better, not worse [241548].