China Still Calls the Shots: Myanmar’s New Leader Plays India Card, But Beijing Holds 90% of the Leverage
Myanmar’s new President, Min Aung Hlaing, made his first foreign trip since taking office, visiting India before heading to China, in what analysts call a balancing act that will do little to loosen Beijing’s stranglehold on the country.
During the India visit, both sides agreed to deepen cooperation on trade, energy, and defense, and promised to revive old agreements [184882]. However, analysts say these moves are unlikely to reduce China’s dominant influence over Myanmar, as Beijing remains the key power in the region [184882]. The trips are seen as an attempt to avoid over-reliance on a single patron, not a shift away from China’s grip [184882].
Meanwhile, Japan and India are moving ahead with their own energy and infrastructure deals. Japanese Minister Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi to finalize a partnership to boost ammonia production, a key chemical for fertilizers and a potential clean fuel for power plants and ships [184828]. The deal aims to share technology and investment to increase output, supporting both countries’ goals to reduce emissions while securing energy supplies [184828].
Japan also announced eight new projects as part of a “digital corridor” linking Taiwan and India, focusing on secure communication networks and digital infrastructure to improve data flow and support businesses [183886]. Additionally, Japanese steelmaker JFE Steel is accelerating expansion in India, targeting high-quality steel for automotive and infrastructure sectors, driven by rapid urbanization and government spending on roads and bridges [182758].
On the security front, a former Japanese minister warned that Japan and South Korea “only have each other” as U.S. commitment to the region wavers, urging a strong security alliance to keep East Asia stable [181346]. Canada also strengthened defense ties with Japan, agreeing to joint naval exercises and closer intelligence sharing, while urging allies to show “discipline” in dealing with China’s growing influence [181300].