Senate Control Hinges on One Texas Seat as Trump's Grip Slips

A Texas midterm race could decide whether Donald Trump's party keeps control of the U.S. Senate for the rest of his presidency. Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico for the state's Senate seat, and no other midterm contest carries more at stake — the winner could tip the Senate majority, shaping what Trump can pass or block in his final years in office [1].

The stakes extend beyond Texas. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is urging Republicans to fight to keep control of the Senate as the party faces growing political headwinds before the midterm elections. Thune must balance advancing President Trump's agenda while allowing Republican candidates to chart their own paths [2].

Voters are increasingly connecting the rising cost of gasoline and diesel to the U.S. war in the Middle East, a link that could create serious problems for Trump and Republican candidates in the upcoming midterms [3]. Healthcare and rising costs are also weighing heavily on voters' minds as they decide how to cast their ballots [4]. The midterm elections will have major consequences for health care in the United States regardless of which party wins [5].

Meanwhile, divisions within Trump's MAGA movement are becoming increasingly visible as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Several of Trump's decisions — including the war in Iran, rising fuel prices, and the Epstein files — are fueling disagreements among his most loyal supporters. Once united by a shared vision of America, MAGA now brings together factions that increasingly disagree over foreign policy, the economy, and what "America First" should actually mean. Yet Trump remains the central figure holding this political coalition together [6].

Trump is also trying to use his influence ahead of the vote, with critics describing an "atmosphere of fear" as states organize elections under the U.S. Constitution [7].

A Democratic takeover of either chamber of Congress could bring tougher scrutiny of Trump's dealings with Beijing, with the Democratic Party seeking greater accountability for the administration's China policy. Until now, Trump's Republican Party has largely given him room to manoeuvre [8].

On the foreign policy front, Trump said there is a "real good chance" of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting a deal could be near ahead of December's G20 summit. Trump made the comment without giving further details on what a possible agreement would include, and officials from both sides have not yet responded [9].