Amazon Deforestation Hits 40-Year Low—But 33 Million Non-Voters Could Hand the Election to Bolsonaro
Brazil's Amazon deforestation has dropped to its lowest level in 40 years, but the presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remains a statistical tie, with both candidates chasing 33 million voters who stayed home in the first round.
Brazil is heading into a presidential runoff on October 25 that could determine the fate of the Amazon rainforest, with deforestation already at a record low but the election outcome hanging on millions of voters who did not show up in the first round.
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has fallen to its lowest level since records began in 1988, according to government data released ahead of the vote [264227][264969]. The decline marks a major achievement for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose environmental policies have cut the deforestation rate by 71% over the past four years [268586][264645]. The area of rainforest cleared each year is now one-sixth of what it was when records began [268586].
However, the future of this progress depends entirely on the outcome of Sunday's runoff, where Lula faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro [269077][264645]. The two candidates hold sharply different views on the rainforest's future [264227].
The race has become a statistical tie. A Datafolha poll released Thursday night shows Bolsonaro with 51% of valid votes and Lula with 49%, within the two-point margin of error [264849]. Both candidates are now targeting the roughly 33 million voters who did not participate in the first round on October 4 [269306]. With only 1% to 2% of voters still undecided, mobilizing those who stayed home could decide the election [269306].
In the first round, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the vote, ahead of Lula at 45.16% [268538]. About 158.8 million voters are eligible to participate in the runoff [268538].
The stakes extend beyond Brazil's borders. The Amazon serves as a vital buffer against climate change, and the election could reshape the political landscape of Latin America [269077][264969]. Under former president Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation had expanded [264969]. If Lula is re-elected, the country could reach zero deforestation by 2030 [268586].