Netanyahu on Track to Lose a Third of Likud's Seats as Israel's October 27 Election Nears
With one week to go before Israel's October 27 parliamentary election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is trailing in the polls and facing far-right rivals that could cost it a third of its 32 Knesset seats, while the race's final stretch has been dominated by a U.S. endorsement, a brain drain, and a lawsuit from a former security chief.
Israel's election on October 27 is approaching fast, but no one knows who will win. One thing is becoming clearer: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is more likely to lose. His polling numbers are poor, and the opposition parties — though divided — may still find a way to form the next government [1].
One week before the vote, far-right parties are challenging Netanyahu's Likud party by pushing it further to the right. Weakened by the trauma of October 7, Likud now faces more radical rivals and could lose a third of its 32 seats in the Knesset [2].
The predicted rightward shift has drawn comparisons to a dark history. Israelis are expected to elect a more right-wing Knesset, whether or not Netanyahu stays in power. Forty years ago, the extremist rabbi Meir Kahane won a single Knesset seat; other legislators responded by passing a law to stop him from running again and by leaving the chamber when he rose to speak. Kahane's ideas included mass expulsion of Palestinians and apartheid-style rules [3].
The campaign's final stretch has been shaped by the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Sunday, ahead of the parliamentary elections on October 27. The endorsement came after weeks of silence that had worried Netanyahu's camp [4]. Trump wrote that Netanyahu "has been a great warrior Prime Minister and an even better partner for peace in the fight against the Islamic Republic of Iran," and warned that if Israel chose a leader other than Netanyahu, the U.S. would have to "do this job by itself" [4].
The endorsement did not go unanswered. Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu, separating himself from Trump's praise of the Israeli leader. Vance said he is "not getting involved in Israeli elections" [5].
For years, Israeli election billboards showed the same image: Netanyahu beside Trump, under the slogan "A different league." Less than two weeks before the vote, the billboards are back. This time, Trump is not on them. The change marks a turn in a relationship that once looked strong; for both men, the timing is critical, and a friendship that once helped both leaders now appears to carry more risk than reward [6].
Netanyahu is also facing legal trouble at home. A former head of Shin Bet, Israel's internal security agency, is suing the prime minister over blame for the October 7, 2023, attack. The former official says Netanyahu is wrongly holding him responsible for the attack, which was carried out by Hamas, the militant group that governs Gaza [7].
The vote will also judge Netanyahu's responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and for the retaliatory war that has inflamed the Middle East and caused a genocide in Gaza [4].
The election is unfolding against an unprecedented brain drain. Since 2023, many university graduates say they are considering leaving the country if Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition stays in power [8]. Ayal Steiner believes Israel's global reputation has become "radioactive." He is flying from Australia to vote in the Israeli elections, hoping to change the country's direction, and says he fears civil war [9].
Netanyahu himself suggested political timing played a role in a major security decision. He said a preemptive strike on Iran would have been "inconvenient" before the October 27 elections [10].
On the campaign trail, settler violence has also drawn attention. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee condemned settler violence during the olive harvest in the West Bank, which injured several Palestinians and Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine. Huckabee demanded "a thorough investigation, arrest and prosecution to the fullest extent of the law" and called the attack "a despicable act of terror carried out by masked cowards" [4]. Levine was seriously injured in Friday's attack in the town of Abu Falah; she said settlers threw her to the ground and beat her for more than 10 minutes, and stole her camera, passport and phone [4].
Netanyahu was ambiguous about the attack on Levine, condemning "violence against any person" but calling the incident "alleged" and saying the circumstances remained unclear [4].
According to Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst, only a clear opposition victory would let the country begin to heal, strengthen democracy, and establish Palestinian rights. After three disastrous years, she argues, Israel needs to rethink itself — and a new government would be a start [1].