Netanyahu Fights for Survival as Israel Heads to October 27 Election After Security Disaster

The vote, set by law after parliament completes its four-year term on July 17, is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership since the Gaza war began [194785]. It will be Israel’s first national election since the security collapse of October 7, when Hamas breached the border from Gaza, plunging the region into war [196960]. For the first time in years, Netanyahu enters the campaign from a position of weakness, fighting from behind as the political fallout from the security failure reshapes the race [196960].

The election will be the first called on the legally mandated date in nearly 40 years, and the first time a government completes its full term in more than 50 years [194525]. The announcement came from Knesset Speaker Ofir Katz, a member of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, during a debate on a party funding bill [194525]. The confirmation comes one month after the opposition failed to force early elections by dissolving the Knesset, a move rejected by a vote of 61 to 53 after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew their support [194525].

A major political flashpoint in the campaign is the military service issue for ultra-Orthodox Jews. In June 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews after the temporary exemption expired. The government responded by promoting a bill to preserve many of those exemptions, though it would require some members of the community to serve [194525]. The conflict has increased the military’s personnel needs, forcing an extension of mandatory service and the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists [194525].

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has intensified rhetoric against Turkey amid reports that former US President Donald Trump is considering selling F-35 fighter jets to Ankara. “Delivering the F-35s to Turkey would destroy the balance of power in the Middle East,” Netanyahu warned [195561]. The “balance of power” refers to Israel’s military superiority over its neighbors, guaranteed by the US policy of “Qualitative Military Edge” [195561]. Israel currently operates the F-35 as the only country in the Middle East, and the jet is nearly invisible to enemy radar [195561]. Israeli media have accused Netanyahu of building a new enemy ahead of the election, with *Haaretz* editorializing that “Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranians have already played their role. Therefore, Netanyahu decided to renew the list of enemies and focus on Ankara” [195561].