Strait of Hormuz Shutdown to Drag On for Months—Iran Demands US Concessions, Tanker Crews Still in Danger
The Strait of Hormuz, the waterway carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil, will remain disrupted for weeks or months even if a deal is reached, as Iran continues to demand the US meet undisclosed conditions before reopening the route.
Negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have shown signs of progress, but a final agreement remains out of reach, leaving tanker crews exposed to ongoing risk and global energy markets on edge [215046][214707].
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has stated that the strait will stay closed until Washington meets specific conditions, though officials have not revealed what those conditions are [214729][214818]. Tehran has also repeated that any agreement would not lead to the strait being opened, complicating earlier hopes for a quick resolution [214542].
The talks, mediated by Oman, focus on creating a new shipping route rather than changing the strait's status [214542]. Iran has presented a fresh list of demands to the United States, signaling that a deal is not close despite Washington's hopes for a breakthrough [214740].
An Iranian official said Tuesday that negotiations have advanced significantly, but the deal will only be finalized if Washington complies with Tehran's terms [215031]. The conditions reportedly relate to the United States' role in the region, and Iran has tied the strait's openness directly to US compensation for violations of an earlier agreement signed in June [214478][215031].
The standoff has left commercial vessels "in limbo," according to Tim Wilkins, a representative for a major tanker industry group, who said transiting the strait remains hazardous for ships and their crews [214707]. Shipping companies are holding back on new transits, and insurers are raising premiums for the route [215046].
Tensions escalated further after the United Arab Emirates reported that one of its ships was struck by an Iranian missile, with no deal yet reached to restore access to the waterway [214818]. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who also serves as a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said the strait will remain closed until Washington changes its approach [214818].
Even if negotiators reach an agreement, shipowners and traders expect oil flows will need weeks or months to return to near-normal levels, according to Bloomberg News correspondents [215046]. The two sides have not resolved core questions on how vessels will be inspected or escorted, keeping the risk of delays or rerouting high [215046].
The United States has not yet responded publicly to Iran's latest statements [215031][214729]. Observers say the next steps depend on whether both sides can find common ground [214729].
Tanker Traffic in Strait of Hormuz to Stay Disrupted for Months, Even if Iran Deal Is Reached Iran: Strait deal won't mean it's open Iran Issues Demands to US as Strait of Hormuz Talks Stall Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Deal: U.S. Must Meet Conditions First Tanker Crews Remain in Danger as Strait of Hormuz Deal Stalls Iran Issues Demands, Keeping Strait of Hormuz Closed Iran says deal near—but Strait of Hormuz still a bargaining chip