Iran & Houthis Trigger Twin Oil Chokepoint Crisis; 20% of Global Supply at Risk
Global oil markets are in turmoil as Iran and its Houthi allies launch coordinated attacks on two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—threatening to cut off nearly a fifth of the world's oil supply and push prices above $120 per barrel.
The crisis escalated sharply when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that no vessel will be allowed to transit the waterway until further notice [200064][202459]. A seafarer was killed and three others injured in a separate attack on the crude oil tanker *Al Bahyah* off Oman's coast, marking the first reported death of a crew member in recent clashes [198880]. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman, handles about 20% of the world's oil supply [198880][202459]. Iran's top joint military command has explicitly warned that if the United States follows through on its threats, it will halt all oil traffic through the Gulf [202385].
Simultaneously, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening to block Saudi-linked ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [200871][202492]. The Houthis have prepared drones and missiles for potential strikes in the 20-mile-wide passage, causing some cargo ships to reverse course [202167]. Bab el-Mandeb, located between Yemen and Djibouti, is a narrow passage through which nearly 10 percent of global seaborne oil passes on its way to and from the Suez Canal [202167][202492].
Shipping analytics firm Kpler warned that a "simultaneous and prolonged disruption" of both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact global oil supplies [202492]. Analysts say a serious disruption in Bab el-Mandeb would leave Asia with few alternatives for Middle Eastern crude, and oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel [201614]. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned that Brent crude could surge above $120 a barrel by the end of the year if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted [201023]. Oil prices have already risen more than 1% as fears over energy supply security intensify [197526].
President Donald Trump issued a new threat on his social media platform, stating that for every Iranian attack in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy a bridge or a power plant, including facilities near or inside Tehran [202575]. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks, and the closure has shaken the global economy [202575]. Before the conflict, one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas passed through the strait [202575]. The price of Brent crude oil has risen to around $94 per barrel [202575].
Gulf states are watching with growing fear as the conflict escalates, with a pattern of strikes and counterstrikes now firmly in place [200164]. The risk of a broader regional war is increasing as diplomatic efforts continue without resolution [200164].