US and Iran Trade Strikes Again, Strait of Hormuz Blocked – 20% of Global Oil at Risk

The United States and Iran have attacked each other for several consecutive nights, bringing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a halt [195718]. The escalation comes despite a June 17 memorandum of understanding between the two countries that gave them 60 days to negotiate a final peace deal and reopen the strait [193465][195563]. That agreement is now effectively dead after a dispute over how to manage the waterway pushed both sides back into open conflict [195934].

On Monday, the U.S. Central Command confirmed a new round of strikes targeting Iranian coastal defense systems, missile and drone facilities, and naval capabilities in Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas [195563]. President Donald Trump told reporters the U.S. is "restoring" a blockade on Iran and declared he would charge other vessels for passage, calling himself the "guardian of the strait" [195563]. "We are going to neutralize their entire capacity regarding the Strait of Hormuz," Trump said [195563].

Iran retaliated quickly. On Tuesday, it launched new attacks against Jordan and Bahrain, both U.S. allies [195563]. Jordan's state news agency Petra said Amman intercepted and shot down four missiles that entered its airspace from Iran [195563]. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for strikes on Washington's allies, and the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency reported the destruction of a U.S. air control radar in Bahrain [195563]. An attack attributed to Iran on two oil tankers in the southern Strait of Hormuz killed one Indian crew member and wounded six Indians and two Ukrainians, according to the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense [195563].

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, once carried a fifth of the world’s traded crude oil and natural gas [194775]. Both nations now claim military dominance over the area, raising the risk of further clashes [194775]. Iran announced it has closed the strait again, escalating a cycle of threats and strikes [195031]. The U.S. insists the waterway remains open for international shipping, even as it exchanges military strikes [194702].

The renewed violence deepens a humanitarian crisis already pushing millions into hunger [195031]. The World Food Programme reports it is feeding 1.5 million fewer people this year due to the conflict, and an extra 2.5 million people in Somalia and 2.3 million in Afghanistan now struggle to meet basic food needs [195031]. The strait is also a key route for global fertilizer exports, and as prices soared, many farmers reduced fertilizer use, threatening future food production [195031].

Experts see no clear path to a different outcome. The fundamentals of the standoff remain the same, and the conflict risks repeating past cycles with neither side able to force a decisive shift [195934].