US Signs Two Conflicting Middle East Deals, Risking Collapse
The United States has signed two contradictory Middle East agreements that risk canceling each other out, with one deal allowing Israel to stay in Lebanon while the other demands a full withdrawal.
The Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June 2025, promising an "immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon" and guaranteeing Lebanon's territorial integrity [1]. Just ten days later, the US helped broker a separate agreement between Israel and Lebanon that allows Israel to keep troops in southern Lebanon with no set timeline for withdrawal, and permits Israel to attack Lebanon if it says security conditions are not met [1].
The two texts are "widely incompatible and contradict each other," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator and president of the US/Middle East Project. He warned that the Lebanon deal is a direct path to collapse the US-Iran agreement [1].
According to the Soufan Center, the Trump administration rushed to finalize the Iran deal to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, agreeing to Iran's demand to include Lebanon. US officials insist the two agreements are consistent, but Levy said the contradictions stem from deep divisions inside the Trump administration [1].
Levy believes Israel will try to make the Lebanon deal override the US-Iran deal, as Israel wants to keep military freedom in Lebanon and sees Hezbollah as an arm of Iran. "Israel sees in Lebanon a way to weaken and ultimately nullify the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran," he said [1].
For Iran, the situation creates a dilemma. Tehran pushed hard to include Lebanon in its deal with the US, but the Lebanon-Israel agreement weakens that achievement. Analyst Hamidreza Azizi wrote that "the ability of Iran to invoke Israeli operations in Lebanon as a violation of the general ceasefire is crumbling" [1].
Meanwhile, negotiations in Doha this week between Iran and the United States ended without a deal. Tehran has also failed to begin clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz and continues to threaten attacks on ships leaving the Gulf without its permission [4]. Neither side has met key obligations under the June 17 memorandum of understanding [4].
A new analysis warns that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu poses a direct threat to the peace process, acting as a "spoiler" who sees peace as a threat to his power. The report states that Netanyahu has a history of acting against such agreements, and without managing this threat, the peace process could fail [3].
Levy warned that Israel wants the Iran deal to fail. "Israel wants a situation where it has justification and legitimacy to maintain its military presence" in Lebanon, he said, which could lead to more war, not peace [1].