Oil Shock: Saudi and Iraq Cash In While Putin Begs Oligarchs for Cash

The Iran conflict has sent oil prices soaring, and new data reveals a clear split in who is winning and losing from the crisis. Major producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq are cashing in with a sudden windfall by ramping up exports to fill the gap left by Iranian crude [150884]. Meanwhile, Russia and Venezuela—both under heavy sanctions—are losing revenue as their oil sells at a deep discount on global markets [150884].

While those petro-states cash in, the Kremlin is feeling the financial pain of its ongoing war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally asked the country’s wealthy oligarchs for direct donations to support the military budget, a move that highlights growing financial pressure on Moscow [112938]. Russia’s defense spending surged by 42% last year, and its budget deficit has widened sharply as U.S. sanctions force it to sell oil at a discount [112938]. At least two businessmen agreed to contribute following talks with Putin [112938].

The financial strain comes as Russia’s war effort stalls on the front lines. An estimated 1.3 million Russian troops are now dead or wounded, and even pro-war military bloggers have started criticizing the Kremlin’s management of the conflict [149775]. Putin’s grip on power is at risk as the war he launched—which was supposed to be quick—drags into its fourth year with no end in sight [149775].

Despite the mounting costs, Putin shows no signs of backing down. He has signaled a long war, demanding Ukraine’s surrender in peace talks and refusing to shift his strategic goals [80394][17910]. Analysts say Russia believes its strong battlefield position allows it to wait for a deal, which is pressuring European nations questioning the cost of maintaining sanctions [17045][136709]. Ukraine is now fighting to keep Western unity intact, warning that any crack among allies will give Moscow exactly what it wants: a chance to break the international front [136709].

In a separate effort to bypass sanctions, Putin announced that Russia plans to build new technological alliances with other countries, though he did not name specific partners [149354]. The statement signals Moscow’s push to find alternative tech sources as Western restrictions cut off access to advanced hardware and software.