Iran Deal Collapses as Tehran Threatens 'Offensive' War, Trump Wavers

The 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace negotiations expired on Monday with no deal in sight, as Tehran adopts a more aggressive military stance and President Donald Trump issues contradictory threats, including a suggestion to bomb Oman. The memorandum of understanding, signed on June 17, was meant to pave the way for talks to end the conflict. However, neither side has shown signs of compromise, and rhetoric has intensified. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ismail Bagaei, dismissed the deadline as "irrelevant" on Monday. Tehran maintains that it will not agree to any pact unless the US withdraws its forces from the region. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran has decided to shift from a defensive policy to a "totally offensive" one due to the lack of progress. This comes as President Trump stated on Fox News that Iran must raise the white flag of surrender. In a separate instance, he claimed the US would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as American territory, and later threatened to bomb Oman over its separate negotiations with Iran regarding maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf. **Iran's Hardliners Rise** Iranian leaders are now presenting a list of maximum demands. These include the full withdrawal of all foreign troops from the region, the complete lifting of sanctions, the return of frozen assets, and war reparations. These demands were reiterated by Mosen Rezaei, the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. According to a report from the Soufan Center, a US think tank, these demands show that hardline factions within Iran's Revolutionary Guard have gained power over more moderate elected leaders in recent appointments. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Jamenei, has also elevated several conservative figures to key positions, including Hossein Taeb, a cleric and former intelligence chief, who is expected to lead the Basij paramilitary force. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated that Iran seeks a diplomatic solution, but one that preserves its gains and fundamental principles. "If they are not offered an agreement that meets these conditions, the Iranians seem willing to risk a return to confrontation with the US," he said. Robert Pape, a security expert at the University of Chicago, argues that Iran has moved through three phases: survival, ambition, and now "hard power." He believes Tehran's immediate goal is to establish a "security belt of resistance" to expand its influence in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, not to negotiate. **Trump's Erratic Signals** The US is sending mixed messages. While there are no public reports of new US attacks on Iranian targets since late July, Trump has made a series of contradictory statements. On Saturday, he said he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory. By Monday, he stated his main goal was only to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. On the same day, he reportedly considered bombing Oman. The US appears to be falling back on economic pressure. Citrinowicz warns that this strategy may backfire. "If the president expects a moment when the pressure is great enough and Iran simply raises a white flag, he will be disappointed," he said. Ali Vaez, from the International Crisis Group, notes that the collapse of the memorandum remains the "least bad option" for both sides. He suggests the current situation is a "dead end of assured disruption" with a risk of new armed clashes. He believes the dialogue between Tehran and Muscat could serve as a bridge back to a revised version of the original deal, but many pieces would need to fall into place for that to happen.