Iran Deal Collapses as Tehran Threatens 'Offensive' War, Trump Wavers
The 60-day deadline for a U.S.-Iran peace deal expired Monday with no agreement, as Tehran vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and shifts to a "totally offensive" military posture.
The memorandum of understanding, signed by President Donald Trump in June, collapsed after both sides accused each other of violations. Iran's Foreign Ministry dismissed the deadline as "irrelevant," while Tehran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, issued a list of conditions for reopening the strait—including full removal of U.S. sanctions, withdrawal of all foreign troops from the region, return of frozen assets, and war reparations [221982][222016]. Roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait daily, making any sustained closure a direct threat to global energy supplies [221648][218592].
Iran has signaled it will not return to the negotiating table unless its maximum demands are met. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran has decided to shift from a defensive policy to a "totally offensive" one due to lack of progress [222016]. Meanwhile, Iran is close to finalizing an agreement with Oman on a transit route for ships, though no tolls would be charged during an interim period [220804].
Trump has issued contradictory threats, including declaring the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory and bombing Oman over its separate negotiations with Tehran [222016][221192]. The U.S. has fallen back on economic pressure, vowing new measures "that have never been seen," while the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln struggles with mechanical issues [219502]. Analysts warn the strategy may backfire. "If the president expects a moment when the pressure is great enough and Iran simply raises a white flag, he will be disappointed," said Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies [222016].
The standoff has already disrupted energy markets, with oil prices climbing as traders react to the uncertainty [217235]. Traffic through the strait remains at a small fraction of pre-war levels, and rising fuel and goods prices are expected to climb further the longer this continues [220806]. Both sides remain dug in, with no new date set for resuming talks [220287].