Spain Bracing for ‘Super Niño’ After Scorching Heat Wave

A mass of dry, very hot air from the Sahara is moving north, bringing Spain its first heat wave of the summer starting Sunday. The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) warns the heat will be dangerous during the middle of the day for outdoor activities and for vulnerable people. Nights will also be very hot. “The important thing is that this will be a persistent episode,” said Rubén del Campo, AEMET spokesperson. “Although there may be some temperature drops during the next week, we will generally have very high temperatures for a good part of the week.” Temperatures could reach 44°C (111°F) locally in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana river valleys. Many areas will experience “tropical nights” and even “torrid nights,” where temperatures do not drop below 25°C (77°F). This will happen especially in densely populated areas like Madrid, which creates a heat island effect. The worst days will be Sunday, July 21, and Monday, July 22. On Sunday, extreme heat will spread across most of the peninsula, with local temperatures near 42°C (108°F). Monday is expected to be the peak of the episode. A very strong anticyclonic ridge over the western Mediterranean and a small storm system (a “dana”) over the Atlantic are driving the heat. This combination creates some uncertainty about the exact intensity. Temperatures may drop slightly after Tuesday, but intense heat is expected to last for most of the week. AEMET also warns that the risk of wildfires will rise, especially in northern areas. The storm system could create dry thunderstorms that may start fires. **Waiting for ‘Super Niño’** This heat wave comes as scientists predict a very powerful El Niño event between June and August 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is an 80% chance that this natural climate phenomenon will activate. El Niño happens when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface warms abnormally due to changes in trade winds and deep-water currents. If the temperature anomaly exceeds 2°C (3.6°F), it is called a “Super Niño.” The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has confirmed that El Niño conditions are already present and will strengthen during the 2026-27 boreal winter. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology officially declared El Niño underway on June 16, saying it could become strong or very strong. “The ‘Super Niño’ is expected more toward the end of the year, but it will certainly add extra energy to an atmosphere already very charged by anthropogenic climate change,” said Del Campo. “Although there is no strong correlation between El Niño and the weather expected in Spain, extreme events like extreme heat or torrential rain could increase.”