World cereal output set to fall 2% as wheat harvests shrink

Global cereal production is expected to drop by 2 percent in the 2026/27 season compared to the previous year, reaching 2,982 million tons, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released in late May. The decline is driven by shrinking wheat harvests. Meanwhile, world cereal utilization is forecast to rise by 0.6 percent in 2026/2027, a sharp slowdown from the 2.7 percent growth recorded in the prior season. Trade in cereals is also projected to fall, reflecting tighter supplies and weaker demand. The FAO report underscores mounting pressure on global food supplies as production fails to keep pace with consumption.