El Nino is here. Scientists fear it will be as bad as the 1997 record.

WASHINGTON (AP) — El Nino, a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean, has formed. Meteorologists say it will likely grow to historic strength. This could trigger extreme weather around the world, including heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the El Nino on Thursday. NOAA says there is a 63% chance it will become one of the strongest on record since 1950. The warming pattern adds heat to the surface of the Pacific, which fuels extreme events. “It can get dire very quickly,” said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called the El Nino an “urgent climate warning.” He said it will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.” El Nino’s effects vary by region. It often reduces Atlantic hurricane activity but increases it in the Pacific. The U.S. East and Gulf coasts may get a break, but Hawaii and other islands face more danger. Parts of western South America often get heavy rain and floods. India faces more intense heat waves. Drought, wildfires, and heat threaten Australia. Northeastern Africa may swing from drought to dangerous rains. In the U.S., El Nino can cause stronger storms in the South. It can also benefit agriculture. The northern Rockies and Southwest, which have a severe snow drought, could get strong summer rains. The biggest U.S. effect is often in winter, when the South gets wetter and the Pacific Northwest gets warmer and drier. Overall, the higher temperatures can slow U.S. economic growth. Several scientists predict 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of this El Nino’s lagging effects. Scientists say climate change from burning fossil fuels may lead to stronger El Ninos in the future. But it is too early to say if this one is part of that trend. Even before it officially formed, this El Nino earned nicknames like “super” and “Godzilla.” “Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared,” said Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.