Democrats Lead in 5 GOP-Held Senate Seats as 43 Million Ballots Already Cast
Democrats are leading in five Republican-held Senate seats and polls show them ahead in House races, as more than 43 million early ballots have been cast ahead of the midterm elections that will test Donald Trump's second presidency.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs on November 3, with the results set to determine which party controls Congress for the rest of Trump's term [275723][277106]. New polling shows Democratic candidates ahead in five Senate races currently held by Republicans, with The New York Times/Siena surveys placing Democratic challengers in the lead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, while the race in Iowa remains effectively tied [276973]. National surveys also show Democrats with an advantage in House races, and state polls show Democratic gains in key Senate battlegrounds [276967].
More than 43 million ballots have already been cast in early voting, with Hispanic voters helping drive a surge that appears to outpace overall turnout for previous elections in some battleground counties [275169].
Trump has headlined 28 rallies during the campaign, all in Republican-leaning states, and has urged supporters to vote "as if I were on the ballot" [277106]. The outcome will shape what the next Congress can — or cannot — accomplish, with control of the chamber giving a party the power to set the agenda, launch investigations, and block or advance legislation [275723].
If Democrats win control of the House or the Senate, they would take back part of Washington from Trump and the Republicans, gaining powerful new tools to launch investigations into Trump's government and conduct oversight of his administration [272348]. Democrats say a win would also give them a mandate for their policies [272348].
In Texas, a midterm race could decide whether Trump's party keeps control of the U.S. Senate for the rest of his presidency, with Republican Ken Paxton facing Democrat James Talarico for the state's Senate seat [276136]. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is leading despite Trump calling him "Mohammed" and labeling him a "jihadist"; if he wins, he could help the Democrats take control of the Senate [275463].
New reporting on what is driving Americans to the polls finds two forces stand out: frustration with the Trump administration and opposition to socialism, suggesting that what voters are voting against may matter more than what they are voting for [276438]. The U.S. Justice Department has also filed a fraud lawsuit against the Southern Poverty Law Center, a leading civil rights group based in Montgomery, Alabama, in the middle of the key midterm elections [276270].