Oil Profits, Debt and War: How the Global Economy Buckled Under Its Own Priorities in 2026

The global economy entered 2026 already strained and ended it stretched to breaking point. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen drove military spending to record levels, displaced millions and disrupted energy supplies, while a worldwide debt crisis and a massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom concentrated wealth in ever fewer hands. Across every crisis, the same pattern repeated: those with power fueled the conflicts, and those without paid the price.

Oil Refiners Cash In as War Chokes Supplies

The year's energy story was one of extraordinary profits built on human suffering. European oil majors Shell and TotalEnergies doubled their profits in the third quarter, posting their best results since 2022 as refining margins surged nearly four times higher than a year earlier [274991]. French energy company TotalEnergies reported a record net profit of $8.3 billion for July to September, up sharply from $5.4 billion in the previous three months, driven by war in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices [274178].

The windfall extended far beyond Europe. Pakistan's oil refineries reported a combined profit increase of 1,860 percent—meaning profit grew more than 19 times its earlier level—in what has been described as a war windfall [276355]. The surge stemmed from supply disruptions: Ukraine and Iran struck refineries in Russia and the Middle East, cutting refining capacity and driving diesel prices up [275783]. Chevron and ExxonMobil reached all-time high profits as global diesel prices surged from these attacks [275783].

Despite soaring fuel prices, major oil companies rejected calls to invest in new refineries. The decision left drivers facing persistently high fuel costs with no clear relief in sight [276343]. Critics argued that building new refineries could ease supply pressures and lower prices for consumers, but oil majors remained hesitant, pointing to long-term risks and costs [276343].

The profit surge drew political attention. President Donald Trump criticized major oil companies for making "too much money," and those same companies subsequently reported sharply rising refining earnings as fuel supplies tightened [275760]. The average price of regular gas in the United States hit $4.29 a gallon, up from $2.98 just before the conflict with Iran began, while diesel jumped to $6.35 from $3.75 [271027]. Trump acknowledged at a Georgia rally that oil companies were making a "fortune" from the war, saying "we're making a freaking fortune" [271027]. A second-quarter report found that a sample of 38 US producers and refiners grew revenues by about $140 billion year over year [271027].

Globally, Brent crude surged past $117 per barrel as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised fears of supply disruptions [269486]. European natural gas prices broke through €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time in nearly four years [273567]. The International Energy Agency warned that energy markets would not return to pre-war conditions even during 2027 [272567].

Russia added to the uncertainty by extending its general ban on diesel exports by producers until the end of January, a move that could tighten global fuel supplies [275891]. The ban applied specifically to diesel exported by producers, though the government left room for certain volumes to continue reaching the global market [275891]. Meanwhile, a flotilla of seven oil tankers hauling an estimated 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel headed toward the United States, but it remained unclear whether they would be allowed to unload as a political fight over the shipments' legality heated up [274273]. The transport marked the first phase of a controversial supply deal negotiated between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that reversed years of sanctions on Russian oil [274273].

A Debt Crisis at Forty-Year Highs

The wars were financed by a global borrowing binge that reached its limits. A worldwide selloff in government bonds pushed yields—the interest rate investors earn from a bond—to levels not seen in decades, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2002 [16757]. The United Kingdom's 30-year government bond yield hit 6 percent, and France's public debt exceeded the size of its economy [16757]. Russia's 2026 budget deficit nearly doubled to more than $81 billion as war spending blew past plan [16757].

The burden fell hardest on developing countries, which paid nearly $1 trillion in debt interest in 2025, according to the United Nations Trade and Development body (UNCTAD). In 51 developing countries, interest costs exceeded spending on health or education [16757]. The United Nations Development Programme warned that high energy costs, the El Niño weather pattern and rising borrowing costs could push tens or hundreds of millions back into poverty [16757].

The Trillion-Dollar AI Gamble

The artificial intelligence boom poured unprecedented sums into chips, data centers and software but concentrated wealth in ever fewer hands. Samsung said it would invest $5 billion in Vietnam and reported a 900 percent jump in quarterly profit driven by AI chip demand; Australia's AirTrunk committed up to $30 billion to build data centers in Japan [16749]. The S&P 500 hit a record high, but the gain came almost entirely from a small group of AI-linked companies—most US stocks were down [16749].

Fears of a bubble grew. CoreWeave, a cloud computing company renting out AI infrastructure, saw its shares plunge 27.5 percent before rebounding, with its credit default swaps—insurance-like contracts protecting lenders against default—surging into "distress" territory [16749]. A wave of selling wiped over $1 trillion from AI companies, with six of the world's richest people—including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page—losing a combined $130 billion in a single day [16749]. Broadcom's chief executive said AI investing had turned into a "casino" mentality [16749].

The boom was built on borrowed money. SoftBank planned to borrow $30 billion to fund AI infrastructure, even as it carried a heavy debt load from past investments [16761]. Economists warned that if data-center construction cannot keep pace with demand for computing power, AI adoption could drive up prices across the economy [16761].

Workers bore the cost: DNB announced it would cut around 400 full-time positions as it used more AI for coding and customer data checks, and law firms confronted a reality where AI could do in minutes what junior lawyers once billed for hours [16749].

Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, filed for an initial public offering (IPO) seeking to raise $100 billion at a valuation of up to $2 trillion [16785]. The filing revealed $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of the year alongside massive losses and plans to spend $807 billion on AI infrastructure [16785]. The company warned investors about risks including bioweapons, AI blackmail and "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" [16821].

The technology sector suffered a sharp decline as disappointing financial results from Amazon and Intel intensified a major selloff, putting the Nasdaq on track for its worst month in over a year [275810]. Intel shares fell 21 percent after hours—the largest one-day drop in the company's history—erasing roughly $12 billion from the US government's stake in the chipmaker [275765]. Alphabet suffered its worst trading day on record, losing $500 billion in market value as concerns about AI spending spread [274449].

Tech Giants, Midterms and the Fed Collide

Wall Street braced for a high-stakes week as major technology earnings, the US midterm elections and a Federal Reserve policy decision converged, with investors on edge over AI concerns and economic uncertainty [275780]. Big fund managers held back from major moves as the vote approached, choosing to wait rather than take risks before what some described as the most consequential election in years [276345]. Wall Street expected Democrats to win at least one house of Congress, an outcome that could bring a volatile period for stock and bond markets, with key issues at stake including AI oversight, defense spending and cryptocurrency legislation [275893].

The economic backdrop sent mixed signals. The US economy grew at a solid 3.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to the last major economic report before the midterm elections [274090]. But that strong headline number masked a deepening anxiety among voters: consumer confidence dropped sharply as inflation accelerated, job growth slowed and energy prices climbed due to tensions in the Middle East [274819]. For many families, the combination of high prices and slowing job growth became the central concern heading into election day [274090].

Both Democrats and Republicans spent over $100,000 each on advertising in 70 House districts in the final days before the November 3 midterms, according to an NPR analysis [274094]. In Texas, a $500 million Senate race became the most closely watched contest in the midterms, with the half-billion-dollar price tag signaling how much both parties believed the seat mattered [276332].

The affordability crisis became intertwined with questions of government accountability. Across the country, families struggled with rising prices while powerful interests profited from backroom deals, creating a political system that rewarded insiders and left ordinary Americans behind [272656]. President Trump's approval rating on the economy fell to its lowest point, with eight out of 10 Americans describing the economy as fair or poor ahead of the midterms, and corruption overtook the economy as voters' top concern [16767].

The AI Boom Meets Public Backlash

The fight over AI data centers moved from local councils to the ballot box. Voters in 10 states decided on election day whether to limit data center development in their communities, as the rapid buildout needed to power the AI boom sparked local opposition [273985]. Resistance was especially strong in Ohio, where voters in more than a dozen jurisdictions considered 21 proposals alongside Tuesday's midterm elections [273985]. Brookings scholar Darrell West said public anger at the AI boom and tech companies was crossing party lines, with voters from both sides asking the same question: who really benefits when massive data centers come to town? [274087]

A CNBC survey found most voters opposed AI data centers near their homes, creating a political problem for Trump and Republicans before the midterm elections [16767]. Trump said data centers should pay local communities a "dividend" to gain their support [16788].

A Continent Left Blind to Its Own Water

Nowhere was the gap between data and survival clearer than in Africa, where new research revealed that governments lacked the detailed information needed to plan for future water demand as populations grew and economies expanded [16851]. A new assessment aimed to measure water demand by location and economic sector—agriculture, industry and households—information described as critical for managing shared resources and avoiding shortages [16851]. A separate accounting review found a paradox: Africa had enough water data to track its resources but not enough systems to manage them, with rainfall and river-flow figures rarely connecting to budget decisions, infrastructure planning or drought response [16851].

In South Africa, civil society groups called for a halt to new AI data centres, warning that hyperscale facilities consuming vast amounts of water and electricity could be built near communities already lacking reliable access to both [16851]. Rand Water warned that Gauteng's reservoir storage had dropped to 28.9 percent, putting the province's water security at risk and prompting urgent calls for municipalities to cut consumption and fix leaks [16889].

Diplomatic Realignments and New Partnerships

The economic strain accelerated diplomatic realignments. Ghana turned to Russia to build its first nuclear power plant and won Moscow's backing for BRICS partner status, deepening energy and economic ties between the two countries [276066]. Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama met Putin in Moscow for bilateral talks, discussing the nuclear plan one day after the Russia-Africa summit [276066]. Russia already had nuclear energy agreements with several African nations and was expanding its influence on the continent through energy and security partnerships [276066].

In West Africa, Togo deepened ties with China and military-led Sahel states, positioning its capital Lomé as a strategic trade hub that could reshape regional politics and commerce [272778]. Chinese President Xi Jinping presented a new plan for handling African conflicts built on four principles linking peace to development [270654].

The Trump administration backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the role of United Nations secretary-general, reportedly counting on support from Moscow and Beijing [272935]. Orbán recently blocked a €90 billion European Union loan to Ukraine [272935]. Finland and Norway made a rare direct call to Putin, breaking with Western efforts to isolate him diplomatically and exposing a split in Europe's approach to ending the war [272916]. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the erosion of the global order meant middle powers in Europe and Asia must become more assertive [272975].

A System at Odds With Human Welfare

Taken together, the year's developments painted a picture of a global order that prioritized financial accumulation and profit over human welfare. The debt crisis forced governments to choose between servicing creditors and meeting citizens' needs. The energy crisis enriched fuel traders while leaving ordinary motorists struggling to afford petrol. The AI boom concentrated wealth in a few hands while workers faced displacement and new security risks.

As bond markets wobbled, oil prices surged and the AI bubble threatened to burst, the fundamental question remained: who would bear the cost of these converging crises, and who would benefit from any recovery?