Russia Expands Ukraine War as US Energy Deals Signal Fading Peace Hopes
Moscow escalates strikes on Kyiv while deepening commercial ties with Washington, dimming prospects for negotiations as Ukraine pushes for talks in Abu Dhabi.
Russia is expanding its war in Ukraine, encouraged by growing energy agreements between Moscow and Washington, as the chance of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow continues to fade [1]. The intensified strikes are making 2026 one of the bloodiest years of the long war for Kyiv, with attacks on the Ukrainian capital growing stronger and more frequent [6].
Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian dealmaker, is working to convince the White House that peace in Ukraine must come through commercial deals first. Over two months, the new Russian-American partnership shifted into an alliance against Kyiv, from Miami to Moscow [2].
Ukraine wants to hold talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi before a proposed summit involving US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pointed to a first round in Abu Dhabi after November 4, though Kyiv says the meeting now depends on Washington [5].
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom's new Chancellor Healey presented his first budget on Wednesday, bringing forward the UK's defense spending target and pledging billions of pounds to Ukraine. He reiterated the UK's continued support for Kyiv, signaling that backing Ukraine remains a central priority for the new government [7].
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that Russia may exploit the Oleshky truce to rebuild its military forces, with the agreement outlining every stage of the evacuees' journey except the final leg home [8].