Somalia Next? 7 New Wars Threaten to Tear Africa Apart as 50 Million Go Hungry

Somalia Next? 7 New Wars Threaten to Tear Africa Apart as 50 Million Go Hungry

A wave of internal conflicts, spreading military coups, and a global resource grab are pushing Africa toward its worst security crisis in decades, as 50 million people face hunger and seven active war zones threaten to expand in 2026.

The International Crisis Group has identified seven urgent threats that African leaders must confront at their upcoming annual summit [71659]. These include ongoing insurgencies and civil wars, a rise in military takeovers that are wiping out democratic gains, armed groups expanding their control over territory, climate change fueling competition for water and farmland, and elections in several countries that risk triggering new violence [71659]. The same report warns that global powers are competing for influence in Africa, forcing governments into difficult diplomatic choices, and that the continent needs a stronger, united voice to protect its interests [71659].

The security situation is most dire in the Sahel. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have all experienced coups in recent years, and their new military governments have pushed out French forces, turning instead to Russia for security support [67411]. Russia’s “Africa Corps” is now deepening its footprint, providing security advisors and gaining political and economic influence in return [67411]. This shift has forced the United States to urgently revise its counter-terrorism strategy in the region as it loses ground [67411].

The scramble for resources is making the situation worse. A quiet competition for Africa’s critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements essential for electric car batteries and digital devices—is intensifying [83553]. The United States and China are both pushing strategies to secure these supplies [68293]. At the same time, European and African leaders are meeting in Angola for a major summit focused on trade and mineral resources, under new pressure from Russia, China, and the U.S. [11355]. African regional blocs must unite to negotiate better deals and build local processing plants, or individual countries could be pressured into unfair agreements [83553].

A major conflict in the Middle East is now adding economic pressure to the security challenges. Airstrikes between Israel, the U.S., and Iran are disrupting key trade routes, driving up costs for goods across Africa [93900]. Attacks on shipping have increased insurance and transport costs, making imported food and medicine more expensive for African consumers [93900]. The conflict is also pushing global oil buyers toward African producers like Nigeria and Angola, as traditional suppliers become unstable [121967]. Meanwhile, fuel and fertilizer prices are climbing, threatening a fragile economic recovery across the continent [109119].

Ethiopia is holding urgent talks with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to boost Africa’s economic independence and reduce external dependencies [127881]. Many African countries are pivoting from traditional ties with the U.S. and Europe toward new deals with Russia, China, and other nations, though analysts warn this shift lacks a unified strategy [44946]. Despite a disruptive year of U.S. foreign policy, African governments have strengthened their international position by pursuing new partnerships independent of Western powers [35302].

The African Union summit originally scheduled to discuss water security was instead dominated by a scramble for influence in the Horn of Africa, as Ethiopia pursues port deals with coastal neighbors and world powers expand their military presence [87433]. The summit in Abuja for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) must address the withdrawal of three member states—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—which is creating a major rift in the region [130544].

With Africa facing conflicts at home and a shifting world order abroad, the continent’s leaders are being urged to act with urgency before the crises spiral further out of control [71659].