India's Russia Bet: A Fading Security Guarantee?

India's strategic reliance on Russia is built on an outdated assumption. A growing consensus among analysts suggests that Moscow can no longer be counted on as a dependable partner for New Delhi. The core issue is a shift in Russian power. Experts argue that in today's geopolitical landscape, Russia lacks both the political will and the military-capacity to consistently support India's interests. This creates a significant problem for Indian foreign policy. For decades, India viewed Russia (and the former Soviet Union) as a steady source of diplomatic backing, advanced weapons, and a counterbalance to other powers. Now, Russia's focus is consumed by its war in Ukraine and its deepening alignment with China—India's primary regional rival. This limits Moscow's ability and desire to assist New Delhi, especially in a potential conflict. The change forces a difficult calculation. India must re-evaluate a foundational pillar of its defense and diplomatic strategy, as its traditional partner's priorities have fundamentally changed.