Iran's Fate Rests With Its Military, Analysts Say

The future of Iran's government may depend on a single, critical group: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Nationwide protests present an unprecedented challenge to the country's leadership. Experts now say the survival of the Islamic Republic hinges on the continued loyalty of its security forces. The IRGC and its volunteer Basij militia are the primary units deployed to control unrest. Their willingness to follow orders is seen as the decisive factor in the current crisis. If this loyalty fractures, the system could collapse. If it holds, the government is likely to survive the protest movement. The situation creates a stark choice for commanders inside the Guards: suppress the protests to preserve the existing state, or refuse and risk its fall.