Three Forces Set to Reshape North Africa by 2025

Three major developments will define North Africa's security and political future in the coming years. First, Libya's political path remains critical. The country's ability to build unified national institutions will impact regional stability. Second, spillover from conflicts in the neighboring Sahel and Sudan is a growing concern. The key question is whether this instability will exceed the region's capacity to manage it. Finally, the level of security cooperation between North African states themselves will be decisive. Their joint efforts will determine how these challenges are met. The interaction of these three factors will reshape the region's outlook through 2025 and beyond.