Trump’s Midterm Disaster: Republicans Lose Congress as JD Vance Blames Iran War

US President Donald Trump has suffered a historic defeat in the midterm elections, losing control of Congress in a vote he himself framed as a referendum on his leadership. The result marks the beginning of the end of the Trump era, with his own party already turning on him. “The regime change happened in Texas and Kansas, not in Tehran,” said one human rights activist, summing up the mood. Americans who voted for Trump two years ago have now voted Democrat, punishing the White House for making their daily lives harder. The main driver was the cost of living. Diesel prices have soared to $6.3 a gallon on average, up from $3.7 a year ago, as a direct result of the illegal war in Iran. This hits farmers, ranchers and industry across the country. Trump tried to fix it by rehabilitating Vladimir Putin and Russian oil, but prices at US gas stations did not fall. Trump’s unilateral tariffs also raised the cost of living for voters. A temporary amnesty on meat from Argentina and Brazil was meant to bring prices down. It did not work, and it angered producers in states like Nebraska. Trump promised to improve people’s lives. Instead, he delivered war and inflation, handing the Democrats the powerful political message of “affordability” — concern over the cost of living. The vote marks the start of the end of the Trump era. At 80, he is in the final stretch of his second term with no chance of re-election. He had asked voters to treat the election as a plebiscite on his record: “Vote as if I am on the ballot,” he repeated from early September. Only 30% of those polled approve of his performance. Trump prefers to act as if the result has nothing to do with him. On Wednesday he addressed the impact of the Iran war on the defeat: “It is largely true because it caused a slight short-term rise in gas prices. But at the same time, if I had to do it again, I would, because in the long term it is the only solution. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. There is no other option. It has to be done. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, or everything you see here could one day cease to exist, and maybe this building would be the only one left standing. Probably that is the main reason: the price, not the war. The price. And I tell you, if I had run in the election, we would have won.” **What happens now?** Trump is now a lame duck — a president who can no longer persuade anyone because he is on his way out and has lost the tools to impose his will. He faces a hostile Congress. Not all Democrats are the same, and the party establishment is funded by the same donors as Republicans and is more willing to work with the White House than the progressive wing. But there is little appetite for deals with a president who insults them daily and who for two years has overstepped his powers, clashing constantly with the legislature, the courts and the press. Democrats have two main levers: control of the budget and investigative committees. The first is more effective and directly limits what the government can and cannot do. The second has mainly political and media impact. Democrats are heading toward primaries for the 2028 presidential race, where the progressive wing will want to fight, as it did with Bernie Sanders in the past. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is currently best placed. Republicans, meanwhile, have already begun knifing each other. JD Vance, the vice president in the administration that launched unilateral and illegal bombing of Iran on 28 February, has already blamed the war for the midterm debacle. He did not wait 24 hours. Citing a pollster, Vance said the four main concerns of Americans were all tied to Trump’s hardline agenda: “End the war; focus on the cost of living and inflation; put America first; and change our relationship with Israel.” “Our voters went to the polls. And the four reasons above are what led many of them to vote Democrat,” Vance said. “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you want to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, do so. Argue it was a price worth paying. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. To those who are angry and want to say ‘I told you so,’ you are right, you told us. Channel that energy into voting for Republicans who share your worldview. To those simply angry about the results, you have reason to be. Let’s use that anger and get back to work saving our country.” Vance’s argument — which he had not made publicly since the bombing of Iran began on 28 February — has been voiced for months by some MAGA figures, including Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Megyn Kelly. They saw a contradiction between “America First” and bombing Iran alongside Israel. Carlson, who campaigned with Trump in the 2024 presidential race, said days ago that Trump was willing to launch a nuclear attack on Iran. Vance’s break with Trump will have consequences for the rest of the term. The vice president is the cabinet member who has the hardest time distancing himself from the White House, but another possible candidate, Marco Rubio, will also struggle — he has always been generous in lending the president his ear. Others are less tainted by accusations of corruption against the Trump family and its business network, and by his hardline agenda. One is outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has run in Republican primaries before. Meanwhile, Trump is entering the final stage of his mandate battered at the polls and facing an internal split.