China’s interests in the Middle East increasingly conflict with Iran’s cooperation with regional proxies and its use of coercive threats.

Iran’s grand strategy depends heavily on China. But China’s priorities in the Middle East are shifting, and those shifts now clash with Iran’s reliance on regional proxies and coercive threats. China wants stable trade routes and reliable energy supplies. Iran’s support for armed groups and its use of military pressure create instability that threatens those interests. This tension raises a key question: Can Iran keep depending on China while pursuing a strategy that undermines China’s goals? The answer may shape Iran’s regional influence in the years ahead.