Trump’s Absolute Power Is on the Ballot

Two years ago, Donald Trump won the White House and gave Republicans control of both chambers of Congress. On Tuesday, voters will decide whether to take that power away. The US president has turned the midterm elections into a referendum on his leadership. That gamble could backfire: polls show Democrats leading in most of the seven key states that will decide who controls the Senate. **A president with few limits** When Trump took office in January 2025, his party held the House, the Senate and, through a 6-3 conservative majority, the Supreme Court. He used that power to push an aggressive agenda that frequently clashed with Congress and the courts. If Democrats win control of Congress, they will be able to launch investigations into the president. They could examine the business dealings of his family and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and question the $2 billion the president has reportedly made since returning to office. They could also challenge his military deployment in Latin America, the blockade of Cuba, the war in Iran, his immigration crackdown and rising defense spending. Democrats could even start impeachment proceedings in the House. However, they would likely lack the 67 Senate votes needed to remove him from office. **Democrats ahead in key states** A final poll by The New York Times and Siena University shows Democratic candidates ahead in five states currently held by Republican senators, and nearly tied in a sixth. They lead in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and hold a slight edge in Alaska. Iowa is effectively tied. To win the Senate, Democrats must defend every seat they hold and flip at least four Republican seats. In Michigan, the only key Senate state already held by a Democrat, candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads by double digits. Discontent with Trump is hurting Republicans. Only 38% of likely voters in the seven polled states approve of his job performance — a striking figure, given that Trump won five of those states by wide margins just two years ago. Voters are increasingly worried about corruption while struggling with the cost of food, fuel and housing. **A president in decline** Trump has said he will veto any legislation that contradicts his views. He will also struggle to pass bills without Democratic support, including the budget, which has been delayed until mid-December. With two years left and no chance of reelection, Trump may enter a new phase as a weakened leader. Republican lawmakers and figures may begin to distance themselves from a president nearing the end of his time in power. **War and foreign policy** The elections take place as the war in Iran drags on and fuel prices soar following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade began after US and Israeli strikes started on February 28. Many expect US attacks to intensify after the midterms. Meanwhile, Israel’s new government remains uncertain after a close election on October 27. Trump’s hopes in Brazil were dashed by Lula’s victory, and his growing closeness to Vladimir Putin may influence the war in Ukraine. The new Congress will likely be more pro-Ukrainian. Trump’s absolute power is on the ballot. The result will have consequences inside and outside US borders.