Tokyo Quake Forecast: 30,000 Could Die, But New Plan Falls Short

Japan has drastically reduced its estimated death toll for a major earthquake hitting Tokyo. However, the government's new disaster plan still fails to meet its own safety target. Officials now project about 30,000 deaths in a worst-case scenario. This is a significant drop from the 2013 estimate of 61,000. The reduction is credited to safer buildings, better evacuation plans, and a lower assumed quake magnitude. Despite this progress, the new figure remains above the national goal. In 2014, Japan set a target to cut potential quake deaths by 80% over a decade. The updated projection only achieves a 50% reduction. The government's new action plan aims to save more lives. Key measures include accelerating building safety checks and expanding fireproofing in older residential areas. Officials warn that about 110,000 structures in Tokyo are still at high risk of collapse. A major tremor directly under Japan's capital remains a top national concern. The updated estimates highlight both improved preparedness and the persistent scale of the threat.