Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed faces a growing regional alliance—and a Tigray conflict that could spill into Eritrea.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is tightening his grip on power. But two threats complicate his position: a regional alliance forming against him, and the war in Tigray, which risks spreading across the border into Eritrea. The Tigray conflict, already a destabilizing force in the Horn of Africa, may not stay contained. Eritrea, Ethiopia's northern neighbor, could be drawn in. Abiy's recent rhetoric has done little to ease those fears. Instead, it has raised them.