China and Russia Hold the Cards in Any Iran Conflict
Part of composite article Oil Crisis Explodes: Brent Crude Tops $105 as Iran Threatens Wider War and France Sends Troops to Saudi Oil Sites View full article →
As tensions rise between Iran and the West, two outside powers could decide how the crisis ends: China and Russia.
Both nations have deep ties to Iran. China buys most of Iran's oil. Russia sells Iran weapons and works with it on military matters. Together, they give Tehran economic and diplomatic cover that is hard to ignore.
Analyst Stephen J. Blank argues that this support limits what the United States and its allies can achieve. Sanctions lose force when China and Russia keep trading with Iran. Military pressure carries more risk when two major powers stand behind the target.
For Washington, the lesson is clear. Any plan to deal with Iran must also account for Beijing and Moscow. Ignoring them invites failure.
The war in Iran, in short, is not only about Iran. It is also a test of how far China and Russia will go to protect a partner — and how much the West can do to stop them.