AfD Leads by Landslide in German State Vote—But May Still Be Shut Out of Power

Berlin — Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) poised for a historic victory that may still leave the party locked out of government. Recent polls by INSA, ARD, and ZDF show the AfD commanding a clear lead at 40 to 43 percent. Yet even a first-place finish would not guarantee the party a seat in the state’s ruling coalition. The final outcome hinges on three factors: the performance of smaller parties hovering near the 5 percent threshold required to enter parliament, the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) pledge to refuse any alliance with the AfD—a stance known as the “firewall”—and the post-election maneuvering of all other parties. If the AfD wins but cannot form a coalition, it would remain in opposition despite topping the vote. The CDU, currently the state’s ruling party, is expected to try building a government with other mainstream partners, a scenario that could leave Saxony-Anhalt with a fragile majority. Political analysts note that the AfD’s surge reflects growing discontent with national immigration and energy policies, but the party’s path to actual power remains blocked by its rivals’ united refusal to cooperate.