Ukraine war: Why peace talks remain a distant hope

Negotiating peace in the Ukraine war is possible in theory, but the reality of this conflict makes it extremely difficult. The war has entered a phase of attrition, where both sides are trying to wear down the other’s ability to continue fighting. This type of war of exhaustion is directly linked to weakening the opponent’s best possible alternative to a deal. By striking at the enemy’s energy infrastructure or production capacity, each side aims to reduce the value of the option “keep fighting without negotiating” for the other. In simple terms, the goal is to make continued war so costly that sitting at the negotiating table becomes the more attractive choice. However, this strategy also means that neither side is currently willing to talk, because each believes it can still inflict enough damage to force the other to surrender more at the table later. As long as both armies see a chance to improve their position on the battlefield, a genuine push for peace talks will remain stalled. The path to negotiation, therefore, is not about goodwill—it is about one side finally concluding that fighting on is worse than compromising.