Oil Is Pouring Through Hormuz? Trackers Can’t Find It.

Firms that count ships, oil output, and imports say they cannot verify U.S. claims about the volume of oil moving through Iran’s critical strait. The United States says crude is flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. But independent tracking companies, which monitor tanker movements and loadings, report a different picture. These firms use satellite images, port data, and ship signals to estimate how much oil actually passes through the strait. According to them, the numbers do not match Washington’s statements. The gap matters. The strait sits between Iran and Oman, and Iran has threatened to close it in past disputes. If the U.S. is overstating the flow, it could mean sanctions or military tensions are causing hidden disruptions. Tracking firms say they are not accusing anyone of lying. They simply cannot find the volumes the U.S. cites in their real-time data. Some tankers may turn off their transponders, but even then, satellite imagery should show large vessels waiting or moving. Until the data aligns, analysts warn that relying on official claims alone could lead to miscalculations in global oil markets and security planning. For now, the only clear finding is a mismatch: Washington says the oil is there, but the trackers cannot see it.