Trump’s new Iran plan: Economic pain or a wider war?

President Donald Trump is betting that new sanctions, a naval blockade, and increased economic pressure on Iran’s trading partners can succeed where thousands of bombs and missiles have failed: forcing Tehran to accept a deal to end the war on US terms. But this strategy faces one major obstacle. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful branch of the Iranian military, has claimed control of the vital Strait of Hormuz and launched volleys of attack drones across the Gulf. The IRGC may respond to the economic squeeze with more attacks on Gulf nations. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. It is a critical passage for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. By threatening this route, the IRGC can directly disrupt global energy markets. The new US approach focuses on cutting off Iran’s revenue. Washington hopes that financial pressure will push Tehran’s leaders to negotiate. However, past US efforts to force Iranian capitulation have often strengthened hardliners inside the country. The key question now is whether the IRGC will escalate its military actions in response to the economic blockade. Increased drone strikes on Gulf states could draw the US and its allies deeper into a regional conflict. For now, the risk of a wider war remains high.