Title: China’s next move? Why Taiwan and the South China Sea could trigger a global crisis.

**Article:** When U.S. Senator Darline Graham struggled to answer whether America has a national security interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea, she drew criticism for saying national security was “not my thing.” The question, however, is central to global stability. Taiwan and the South China Sea have long been flashpoints in U.S. foreign policy, and tensions with China have kept both in the spotlight. Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory and asserts control over nearly the entire South China Sea. These claims put China in direct conflict with U.S. allies and partners in the region. What happens in these waters matters far beyond Asia. The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest trade routes. Taiwan produces most of the world’s advanced semiconductors, the tiny chips that power everything from smartphones to military systems. “The two are very much connected,” said Hunter S. Marston, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute in Australia. “If China were to blockade or seek to forcibly retake Taiwan, the South China Sea could quickly see spillover effects.” **Taiwan: A key issue in US-China relations** Taiwan is a self-ruled democracy. China claims it as its own territory and has not ruled out using force to bring it under control. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, and the issue has remained a thorn in international relations ever since. China sends military aircraft, coast guard ships, and other vessels around Taiwan almost daily. It also holds large-scale military exercises. Taiwan responds with its own drills, including the annual Han Kuang exercises. The U.S. does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it is required by U.S. law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. Under that framework, the U.S. has long been Taiwan’s main informal backer and arms supplier. This relationship is a persistent source of tension with Beijing. During U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing in May, Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear that Taiwan remains the most important issue between the two countries. Xi warned that mishandling U.S. ties with the island could lead to confrontation. Trump did not publicly address Taiwan during the trip. But on his way back, he called arms sales to Taiwan a “very good negotiating chip” with China. The comments stirred anxieties on the island. If China took control of Taiwan, experts say, it could project military power far into the South China Sea and beyond into the Pacific. A conflict would also have direct consequences for Southeast Asia. Marston noted that nearly 1 million citizens of ASEAN countries would need to be evacuated. Regional governments would be forced to navigate between the U.S. and China. **Tensions persist in the South China Sea** China asserts sovereignty over much of the South China Sea, despite a 2016 international arbitration ruling that invalidated its expansive maritime claims. In July, on the 10th anniversary of that ruling, the U.S., the U.K., and 12 other countries reiterated that China’s claims have no legal basis. Beijing responded by insisting it would neither accept nor recognize the decision. Confrontations in the disputed waters have become more frequent. Chinese coast guard ships have used powerful water cannons, military-grade lasers, and dangerous blocking maneuvers against Philippine forces and fishermen. These encounters have led to collisions at sea and high-risk incidents in the air. China also carried out military drills this month near Scarborough Shoal, a disputed area claimed by both China and the Philippines. In April, the U.S. and the Philippines held their annual Balikatan military exercises. The drills included mock battle scenarios and live-fire exercises in provinces facing the disputed sea and the Taiwan Strait. The South China Sea is one of the world’s most important maritime commercial corridors. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a conflict there could cause major disruptions to global trade. The sea connects to surrounding waters through strategic chokepoints, including the Malacca Strait, which links it to the Indian Ocean, and the Taiwan Strait, which connects it to the East China Sea. **What does the U.S. want?** For Marston, the primary U.S. objective is clear: “Preventing China from gaining regional hegemony and dominating the Pacific.” “The security of Taiwan and its allies such as the Philippines, as well as defense of the first island chain, are integral to this overarching goal,” he said. But the U.S. military’s ability to maintain its presence in the western Pacific is being tested. The USS George Washington aircraft carrier is leaving the Pacific to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East, where the Lincoln’s deployment was extended to support operations against Iran. The move will temporarily leave the western Pacific without a U.S. aircraft carrier at a time of rising tensions with China. It also comes as the Trump administration shifts its focus away from the Asia-Pacific region toward the Western Hemisphere.