Middle East Oil Flows Near 15 Million bpd? U.S. Claim Faces Reality Check

Washington says Middle East crude exports have bounced back to 15 million barrels per day. But new shipping data suggests the recovery may be less complete than advertised. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that regional oil flows have returned to pre-disruption levels. That figure—15 million barrels per day (bpd)—would mark a full rebound after months of tanker rerouting and port delays. Yet independent tracking firms point to a different picture. Real-time vessel data shows tanker loadings across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea remain roughly 300,000 to 500,000 bpd below that target. The gap stems from lingering insurance costs and slower turnaround times at key terminals. Analysts say the official U.S. number likely includes barrels that are booked but not yet loaded. In practice, cargoes are sitting longer in storage as buyers wait for freight rates to ease. The difference matters. If the true flow is closer to 14.5 million bpd, global inventories will tighten faster than expected. That could push prices higher in the coming weeks, despite Washington’s reassurance of ample supply. For now, traders are watching weekly export data from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. A sustained miss against the U.S. claim would force a revision—and possibly a market correction.