Iran Tests Trump: Who Blinks First in Strait of Hormuz?

TEHRAN — Iran is betting that President Donald Trump will back down first in a high-risk standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway critical to global oil shipments. The gamble, confirmed by Iranian officials this week, involves increasing military patrols and threatening to disrupt shipping through the strait. About 20% of the world's oil passes through this chokepoint. Tehran's strategy relies on the assumption that the United States, despite its military superiority, will avoid a direct confrontation that could spike oil prices and hurt the global economy. Iranian leaders believe Trump, who has repeatedly promised to end "endless wars," will choose de-escalation over conflict. The move comes as Washington tightens sanctions on Iran's oil exports. By raising the stakes in the strait, Tehran hopes to force negotiations on its own terms. Analysts warn the tactic is dangerous. Any miscalculation—a stray missile, a collision at sea—could trigger a wider war. For now, both sides are watching closely to see who flinches.