Uganda’s Oil-Fueled Budget: A Rare Chance to Reshape the Economy

Uganda is at a turning point. Commercial oil production is set to begin later this year, and the government has a fresh electoral mandate. The 2026/27 national budget aims to do more than just increase spending. It seeks to tackle a problem that development economists have long studied: how to move from a dual economy—one split between a small modern sector and a large traditional one—toward a more balanced, productive system. If successful, this budget could mark a deliberate shift in the country’s development path.