Trump Trapped in Iran Crisis, Netanyahu Won't Help Him Escape

For the first time, Iran has launched missiles from its own territory directly at Israel. This is a major escalation. Until now, Iran used allied groups like Hezbollah or Hamas to strike Israel. The attack on October 7 was a direct response to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. This move shows Iran is willing to tie its fate to its regional allies. It also signals that Tehran believes it can withstand pressure from US President Donald Trump. Iran is demanding that Israel stop its attacks in Lebanon. It is not backing down. Trump is increasingly desperate. On Tuesday, he confirmed that Iran shot down a US helicopter patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. "The US must respond," he said. Iran's foreign minister replied: "The best solution is for you to withdraw. We prefer diplomacy, but we speak other languages too." Trump needs a deal to stop the damage from his miscalculations. Even his own supporters are worried. But a military option, short of using nuclear weapons, offers no better result than what the US and Israel have already achieved. The only realistic path is negotiation. But Trump cannot get much more than what was on the table in May 2018. That is when he abandoned the nuclear deal signed by President Obama. A new deal would not end Iran's nuclear program, stop its missiles, cut its support for allies, or free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Even worse for Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not help. Netanyahu has shown he wants to redraw the map of the Middle East. He wants Israel as the regional power with a nuclear monopoly. He is doing everything to stop a US-Iran deal. This puts Trump in a trap. He needs to reduce tension to make a deal with Iran. But if he holds back Netanyahu, he is accused of abandoning Israel. If he lets Netanyahu act, he admits Israel has veto power over US policy. The best Trump can hope for is that Netanyahu moderates his attacks. Trump is offering a reward: the Abraham Accords. These would bring full recognition of Israel by Gulf states. But those countries are unlikely to sign while the war hurts them. Netanyahu is unlikely to accept.