US-Iran Ceasefire: Neither Side Winning, Both Losing

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is barely holding. While it has prevented a return to full-scale war, neither side is close to achieving peace. Since the ceasefire began on 8 April, tensions have only escalated. This week, the US launched new strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by hitting targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. Israel has also increased its actions in Lebanon. Earlier clashes over the past two months were quickly contained. Both Washington and Tehran have tried to maintain a delicate balance—no war, but no peace. However, as this ceasefire drags on, it risks becoming another Middle East stalemate with serious global economic and political consequences. According to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, four key obstacles block progress. The first is trust. Iran does not believe President Donald Trump can deliver a deal, much less stick to one. Tehran fears Washington will walk away again, or keep changing demands—starting with nuclear limits, then missiles, then regional policy, and finally more political concessions disguised as security guarantees.