South Korea's Past Dispute With China Shows Risks of Japan's New Defense Stance

Japan's consideration of deploying advanced U.S. missile defenses could trigger strong economic retaliation from China, a pattern seen before with South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's minister for economic security, is leading the policy review. Her task will be to prepare for potential Chinese countermeasures, which historically have targeted tourism and commerce. In 2016, South Korea agreed to host the U.S.-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. China, calling THAAD a threat to its own security, responded with intense economic pressure. Chinese group tours to South Korea were banned, and Korean cultural products faced unofficial boycotts. Korean conglomerate Lotte, which provided the deployment site, saw most of its Chinese stores close. The dispute cost South Korea an estimated $7.5 billion in lost tourism revenue alone. While relations later stabilized, the episode demonstrated China's willingness to use economic tools for security disputes. Japan is now studying whether to acquire and deploy a similar system. Minister Takaichi has publicly acknowledged the need to learn from the "THAAD shock" experienced by South Korea. Her office is reportedly modeling potential scenarios, including restrictions on Chinese travelers to Japan or sudden drops in demand for Japanese goods. The final decision on deployment rests with the Japanese government. However, Takaichi's work highlights that the calculation now extends beyond military necessity to include significant economic preparedness.