Hormuz Crisis Splits ASEAN: Thailand Bleeds, Indonesia Gains as Oil Shock Hits 20% Monthly Jump
A sharp rise in global oil prices—roughly 20 percent in a single month—is redrawing the economic map of Southeast Asia, creating clear winners and losers as the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts energy flows and fuels inflation across the region [208198].
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, handles about 20% of global oil trade, and attacks on tankers there have sent insurance rates soaring and shipping lanes shifting [208953]. For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which imports most of its crude from the Middle East, the effect is immediate but not uniform. Thailand has suffered a direct blow: a Thai-flagged vessel was among those attacked near Hormuz, putting seafarers’ lives at risk [208953]. Meanwhile, countries with stronger domestic energy production or strategic stockpiles are better positioned to weather the storm, and exporters of goods that become more competitive as shipping costs rise may find new opportunities [208953].
The crisis is also pushing up borrowing costs far beyond the region. The Euribor, the main benchmark for variable-rate mortgages in Spain, closed July at 2.855%, its highest level since September 2024, driven by renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz [208636]. The escalation of hostilities in mid-July pushed oil prices up, fueling inflation and leading markets to expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) may keep interest rates higher for longer [208636]. For a typical variable mortgage of €150,000, this translates to an increase of €64.78 per month, or €777.36 per year [208636].
The broader market remains on edge. Oil climbed on Wednesday as traders weighed growing risks to global supply, from heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf to ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea region [208279]. Analysts note that the situation remains fluid, and further price swings are possible if supply routes are hit or diplomatic efforts stall [208279]. For ASEAN, prolonged instability could push some economies into recession, while others may emerge stronger—the divergence depends on factors like energy mix, trade routes, and fiscal flexibility [208953]. Governments are now scrambling to secure alternative supplies and negotiate safe passage for their ships, but the human toll remains the heaviest price of all [208953].
Hormuz Crisis: ASEAN’s Hidden Winners and Silent Losers Oil Prices Slip, but Head for Biggest Monthly Jump in Years Oil Prices Surge as Supply Threats Mount from Gulf to Black Sea