World on the Brink: Wars, Fuel Crises, and a Divided NATO Summit Define a Week of Global Turmoil

The week began with the collapse of a hard-won truce between Washington and Tehran. After Iran attacked three commercial oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes—the United States launched a wave of airstrikes, hitting more than 80 military targets inside Iran [14728][14709]. President Donald Trump declared the April ceasefire “over” and threatened to seize Iran’s main oil terminal on Kharg Island [14719]. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, including the Fifth Fleet base at Port Salman [14715]. A liquefied natural gas tanker caught fire after being hit by a projectile in the strait, and explosions were reported across Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait [14710][14715]. Oil prices surged nearly 6% after the U.S. revoked a waiver that had eased restrictions on Iranian crude sales [14704]. Analysts warned that without immediate de-escalation, the region could slide into open conflict [14728].

The escalation came as Iran buried its slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a six-day funeral that drew up to 30 million mourners [14696]. The massive turnout was intended as a show of strength, but it also exposed deep divisions within Iran’s leadership. Some officials viewed the crowds as a referendum of support for the clerical establishment, while others argued the turnout reflected national pride mixed with demands for political change [14696]. The absence of a clear successor has left analysts wondering who is truly running the country [14696].

While the Middle East teetered, the war in Ukraine intensified dramatically. Ukrainian forces launched a sustained drone campaign that knocked out 42% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, inflicting an estimated $13.5 billion in damage [14720]. The attacks have triggered Russia’s worst fuel crisis in decades. Drivers in cities like Samara, Irkutsk, and Sevastopol now face 18-hour queues for gasoline, which is rationed via QR codes linked to vehicle registrations [14703]. Fistfights have broken out at pumps, and in the Siberian town of Ust-Ordynsky, a police officer drew his pistol after a driver cut a five-hour queue [14703]. President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged a “certain shortage” of fuel [14720]. The shortages have spread to Central Asian neighbors like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which now face their own rising prices after Moscow cut fuel exports [14720].

The NATO summit in Ankara, meant to project unity, instead highlighted the alliance’s internal strains. Trump arrived ready to slam allies over defense spending, publicly calling Spain a “terrible partner” and complaining that other nations were not paying their fair share [14732]. Turkish President Recep Erdogan gave each of the 32 NATO leaders a personalized revolver and ammunition, creating a security and legal headache for heads of state from Spain to Canada [14722]. Despite the tensions, the alliance announced new defense contracts worth over $50 billion and pledged £37 billion for a new generation of long-range missiles [14721]. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the summit would make the alliance “more European” in order to keep the United States committed [14707]. Trump also announced he would lift sanctions on Turkey and consider selling it F-35 fighter jets, a dramatic shift in U.S. policy that could reshape NATO’s internal dynamics [14700].

In Gaza, Hamas dissolved its governing bodies and handed power to a technocrat committee, but Israel blocked the new leaders from entering the strip, leaving the territory in political limbo [14695]. The United Nations welcomed the move as a step toward a ceasefire, but analysts warned there were no signs Hamas would disarm [14695].

Beyond the battlefields, the climate emergency accelerated. A record-breaking heatwave in Europe melted roads, buckled railway tracks, and killed more than 2,000 people in France alone [14713]. Wildfires scorched over 67,000 hectares across France and Spain [14713]. In Mauritania, a centuries-old fishing culture is on the brink of collapse as industrial overfishing and climate change devastate the Banc d’Arguin [14716]. In the Adriatic Sea, 76% of fishing boats are now followed by dolphins that have abandoned natural hunting to scavenge for scraps [14716].

Meanwhile, the International Olympic Committee lifted Russia’s suspension, clearing the way for the country to compete at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics despite strong objections from Ukraine [14726]. The International Athletics Federation is refusing to follow the IOC’s lead, setting the stage for a conflict ahead of the Games [14726].

The week’s events underscore a world in which peace deals collapse almost as soon as they are signed, wars intensify, and ordinary citizens—whether in Russian gas queues, Iranian funeral processions, or European heatwaves—bear the heaviest costs. As global leaders gather to discuss security, the question remains whether the international system can deliver the coordinated action needed to prevent further escalation.